CAD: Watch for more jobs weakness – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Bank of Canada delivered a widely expected 25bp rate cut on Wednesday. The BoC event did not move markets significantly, and the USD/CAD dive shortly after the announcement was instead mostly due to soft US JOLT figures, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

NFP can have a larger impact on USD/CAD than Canadian payrolls

“Today, Canada releases jobs figures at the same time as the US. The consensus for headline Canadian payrolls is 25k, in line with the last few months. The fact that consensus has not adjusted lower following two negative prints tells us it is not a really reliable benchmark for expectations.”

“Incidentally, looking at the unemployment figure is likely more informative at this stage. We expect, in line with consensus, an increase from 6.4% to 6.5%. Remember, this was 5.7% in January, and another tick higher would endorse market pricing for more back-to-back Bank of Canada cuts.”

“The US payrolls can have a larger impact on USD/CAD than Canadian payrolls. However, we remain of the view that the pairs look increasingly cheap as they approach the 1.345 mark. Ultimately, the Canadian dollar should underperform most other high-beta peers if soft US macro news comes through.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD extends slide to fresh 2026-low near 1.3150

GBP/USD resumes its downside in the second half of the day on Wednesday and trades at its lowest level since November 2025 near 1.3150. The pair remains vulnerable amid a broadly firmer US Dollar and chaotic UK political environment. The focus is now on BoE-speak for further trading impetus.

EUR/USD slumps to new yearly low below 1.1350

EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure and trades at its lowest level in a year below 1.1350 on Wednesday. The pair remains vulnerable to further declines amid a bullish US Dollar, which continues to draw support from hawkish Fed bets and US-Iran peace deal uncertainty.

Gold closes in on $4,000 on persistent USD strength

Gold remains under persistent selling pressure and trades at its lowest level since November near $4,000 on Wednesday, losing more than 2.5% on the day. Hawkish Fed pricing, broad-based US Dollar strength and the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace agreement make it difficult for the precious metal to find a foothold.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP trade under pressure as September Fed rate-hike odds increase

Bitcoin is trading between $62,000 and $63,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by headwinds stemming from macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

5.90% to 5.45%: Why the Pound ignored the bond market’s relief rally

Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, and the Pound barely moved. That near-silence is the tell. Sterling's real driver these past four months has not been the prime minister, nor the left-leaning frontrunner lining up to replace him, but the long end of the gilt curve, which answers to a force no British politician controls.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.