CAD: Jobs data and BoC stance guide Loonie – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING’s Francesco Pesole points to Canada’s March labour report as key for Bank of Canada (BoC) expectations, stressing that the unemployment rate matters more than volatile monthly payrolls. With markets pricing about 40bp of tightening by December despite limited BoC appetite for hikes, he sees risks to Canadian Dollar (CAD) front-end rates as dovish and expects USD/CAD to drift toward 1.3700 on continued de‑escalation.

Labour data and rates shape USD/CAD

"Canada releases jobs data for March today. Consensus is for a +15k payroll change after the very soft -83k February print."

"But the bigger signal for the Bank of Canada tends to come from the unemployment rate rather than the quite volatile monthly jobs swings."

"In our view, risks for CAD front-end rates are skewed to the dovish side in the coming weeks."

"Markets are pricing around 40bp of tightening by December, which looks too aggressive considering the BoC has not signalled much appetite for hikes, and attention may soon shift to USMCA renegotiations – a major downside risk for Canada’s activity and jobs."

"USD/CAD remains dominated by war headlines for now, and continued de‑escalation should allow a move to 1.3700."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD advaces beyond 1.3450 after BoE decision, US Q2 GDP

GBP/USD gains positive momentum on Thursday, surpassing 1.3450 and trading at fresh multi-week highs. The Bank of England decided to maintain the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%. The MPC voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold, with the 3 dissenters favoring a rate hike. US Q2 GDP missing expectations helped the pair advance, while renewed US Dollar weakness across the FX board pushed the pair further up ahead of the monthly close.

EUR/USD confortable around 1.1530, highest in six weeks

The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1530 in the American session on Thursday, reaching fresh six-week highs. The US Dollar is in sell-off mode, with multiple factors weighing on the American currency. Not only did the Federal Reserve vote divided to keep rates on hold on Wednesday, creating doubts about a September hike, but US Q2 GDP missed expectations. A suspected JPY intervention adds pressure on the Greenback.

Gold sellers keep lurking above $4,100 as USD rebounds

Gold struggles to capitalize on its gains registered over the past two days and trades with a mild negative bias just below $4,100 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar recovers slightly from its lowest level since June 17 amid a further escalation of US-Iran tensions, acting as a headwind for the bullion.

Why is IDR near historic lows despite Bank Indonesia's 5.75% rate?

The Indonesian Rupiah has faced persistent depreciation pressures against the US Dollar during the first half of 2026, with the USD/IDR pair stabilizing around the 18,100–18,200 range at the time of writing after reaching a record high at 18,247 on June 8, marking the Rupiah's weakest level on record against the Greenback.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.