British Pound rises as market sentiment improves on US-Iran peace deal

GBP/USD advances as the US Dollar weakens following reports of a US-Iran peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump announced that the Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete.
The BoE is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on Thursday.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

GBP/USD gains ground after registering minor losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3450 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) declines amid easing risk aversion following the reports that the United States (US) and Iran have agreed on a peace deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The New York Times reported on Sunday that the US President Trump said that the agreement he reached with Iran would ultimately ensure that the Strait of Hormuz is “permanently toll-free.”

Bloomberg reported on Sunday that Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the United States (US) and Iran have agreed on a deal to bring their nearly four-month war to an end, with both sides declaring the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

Iran's National Security Council confirmed a ceasefire agreement with the US, adding that final deal talks will start after the other party fulfills commitments under the memorandum of understanding. Iranian officials said the maritime blockade against Iran should end immediately and entirely.

A 0.1% contraction in the UK economy this April, the first monthly decline since August, has cast significant doubt on whether the Bank of England (BoE) will continue hiking interest rates to combat inflation. While the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting on Thursday, investors are closely monitoring ahead-of-schedule inflation and employment data for clearer direction.

Compounding this economic uncertainty is the June 18 Makerfield by-election, where a strong performance by Labour’s Andy Burnham could signal a shift toward more expansionary fiscal policies. This puts added pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is already navigating intense internal party dissent and record-high voter dissatisfaction over his economic leadership.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

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