British Pound outperforms at the start of the UK Q2 GDP data week
- The British Pound rises against its major currency peers at the start of the week.
- Markets doubt the sustainability of the US Dollar’s recovery and a slight upside move in the British Pound.
- Traders have scaled back hawkish Fed bets for the September meeting.
The British Pound (GBP) trades higher against its major currency peers and is marginally up at around 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The outperformance in the British currency seems unlikely to sustain as traders seem confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will not hike interest rates in the near term despite rising oil prices prompting global inflation expectations.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.41% | 0.10% | -0.02% | 0.09% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.02% | -0.04% | 0.37% | 0.06% | -0.04% | 0.06% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.43% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.41% | -0.37% | -0.43% | -0.33% | -0.45% | -0.38% | -0.33% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.11% | 0.33% | -0.18% | 0.00% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.02% | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.45% | 0.18% | 0.09% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.09% | -0.06% | -0.10% | 0.38% | -0.01% | -0.09% | 0.00% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.05% | -0.10% | 0.33% | 0.03% | -0.10% | -0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
BoE tone undercuts Pound despite hawkish vote split
Analysts at Rabobank highlight that "GBP net shorts bounced higher last week ahead of the BoE policy meeting," underscoring a build-up in speculative bearish positioning on the currency. They note that, while the MPC delivered "a more hawkish voting split than the market had expected," Governor Bailey’s communication was notably cautious, with his "tone" described as "dovish, suggesting little support for the pound from the BoE." This combination of a formally tighter stance but softer rhetoric is seen as reinforcing the lack of policy backing for the Pound in the near term.
This week, the major trigger for the Pound Sterling will be the preliminary United Kingdom (UK) Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be released on Thursday.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is expected to report that the economy expanded at a 0.4% pace, slower than the previous reading of 0.6%. On a monthly basis, the GDP is seen declining 0.1% in June after rising at a similar pace in May.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades marginally higher after a weak Friday. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.60.
However, financial markets expect weakness in the US Dollar in the near term, as traders don’t see the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiking interest rates at the September meeting anymore.
Dollar slide deepens as weak US jobs data cools Fed hike odds
Strategists at BNY observe that the latest US labor-market disappointment has materially shifted the policy narrative, noting that “the weaker U.S. labor-market signal has pulled down real-rate expectations, extended the Dollar decline and reopened a window for duration and risk assets.” They highlight that “last Friday’s weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls report – at -23k vs. the expected 80k – and the accompanying downward revisions meaningfully cooled expectations for a Fed hike in September, leaving the market with a less than 50% chance of a hike,” reinforcing the recent move lower in front-end rate pricing and supporting a more constructive backdrop for risk-sensitive assets.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Aug 13, 2026 06:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 0.4%
Previous: 0.6%
Source: Office for National Statistics
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
