Brent: Hormuz risk premium fades, forecast steady – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that easing US–Iran tensions have pushed Brent below USD80 as markets price a high probability of normalised Strait of Hormuz flows. However, ongoing operational frictions and precautionary stockpiling are expected to slow further downside in Oil prices, and OCBC maintains its end‑2026 Brent forecast at USD80 per barrel.

Normalising flows but downside seen limited

"Incremental progress in US Iran talks over the weekend has pushed Brent back below USD80 per barrel."

"Markets are now pricing a high probability of normalised Hormuz flows, despite lingering doubts over the durability of the US-Iran deal."

"We still think mine clearance, insurance reinstatement, production restarts will take time. This along with a likely pickup in precautionary stockpiling should slow further downside in oil prices."

"We maintain our end-2026 Brent forecast at USD80 per barrel."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

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