Australian Dollar holds losses following RBA decision

AUD/USD remains subdued as the RBA held its Official Cash Rate steady at 4.35%, matching market expectations.
China’s Retail Sales fell 0.6% year-on-year in May, missing expectations of a flat reading.
Traders price in the odds of the Fed holding interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% this Wednesday.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

AUD/USD pares its recent gains from the previous day, trading around 0.7050 during the Asian hours. The pair remains subdued as the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggles to shake off losses following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest monetary policy update.

As widely anticipated by the market, the RBA decided to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% during its Tuesday meeting. The decision offered few surprises and lacked the hawkish spark needed to lift the currency, leaving the Australian Dollar highly sensitive to outside economic pressures.

Compounding the pressure on the AUD is a wave of weak economic data out of China. Because Australia's economy relies heavily on commodity exports to Beijing, negative developments in China routinely drag down the antipodean currency.

China's domestic demand slumped sharply in May, with Retail Sales contracting by 0.6% year-on-year against expectations of a flat reading. Additionally, Fixed Asset Investment dropped at a faster pace of -4.1%, failing to meet the projected -2%. While Industrial Production offered a minor bright spot by coming in stronger-than-expected at 4.5%, the overall data packet highlighted an uneven recovery that is weighing heavily on Aussie trader sentiment.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is holding steady as broad market caution keeps investors on the defensive. Geopolitical anxieties persist around Iran’s unresolved nuclear program, keeping risk appetite low. Even though US President Donald Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding has been signed to end the regional conflict and reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, market participants remain deeply skeptical because neither Washington nor Tehran has released the official text of the agreement. This ongoing uncertainty has driven defensive flows into the safe-haven greenback.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is universally expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday. Elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East tensions have kept US inflation sticky, giving the central bank reason to hold steady. Market participants will be intensely focused on the upcoming press conference for crucial clues on how the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, intends to guide the central bank and shape monetary policy in this new era.

Economic Indicator

RBA Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD.

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