Australian dollar holds ground vs Japanese Yen amid May Trade Deficit

AUD/JPY remains calm following missing domestic trade data expectations.
Australia's Trade Balance shifted to a A$3,018M deficit in May, reversing April's surplus.
The Japanese Yen may receive support amid the potential for government intervention.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

AUD/JPY remains flat after recovering daily losses, trading around 112.10 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross held its ground as the Australian Dollar (AUD) showed resilience, even after domestic trade data significantly missed market expectations.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the Trade Balance unexpectedly swung into a deficit of A$3,018 million in May, a sharp reversal from the previous month's revised surplus of A$1,383 million. This fell well short of the market consensus, which had anticipated a surplus of A$2,200 million. The downturn was primarily driven by a 6.9% month-on-month plunge in exports, compounded by a 2.6% increase in imports.

The AUD/JPY cross moves little as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under intense pressure despite mounting evidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may continue normalizing its monetary policy. Japan’s latest Q2 Tankan Large Manufacturing Index climbed to 22 from 17 prior, the highest level in eight years, strengthening the case for further interest rate hikes later this year.

The JPY continues to languish near its weakest level against the US Dollar (USD) in four decades. This prolonged weakness has kept traders on high alert for potential government intervention, which could put downward pressure on the AUD/JPY cross, especially ahead of a US public holiday when thinner market liquidity could magnify the impact of any official action. Reinforcing this caution, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated warnings that authorities stand ready to respond appropriately to currency market developments at any time.

Economic Indicator

Trade Balance (MoM)

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.

GBP/USD gathers strength to near 1.3300 on Burnham’s commitment to fiscal rules, NFP data loom

The GBP/USD pair gains traction to near 1.3290 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The British Pound strengthens against the US Dollar as the UK's likely next Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, has eased market concerns by pledging strict fiscal discipline. The US Nonfarm Payrolls data for June will take center stage later on Thursday.

EUR/USD nudges higher above 1.1350 on softer Fed stance, traders await US jobs data

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.1380 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar edges lower against the Euro on less hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. Traders will closely monitor the US jobs data for June later on Thursday.

Gold finds acceptance above $4,000, but US NFP holds the key

Gold is looking to build on its previous recovery beyond the $4,000 mark early Thursday, with the next big move hinging on the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls data release.

Bitcoin recovers on Kevin Warsh optimism – Jupiter, Morpho lead rally

The broader cryptocurrency market is easing downside pressure, with US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's optimism about US growth driving Bitcoin above $60,000. Short liquidations outpace long liquidations over the last 24 hours, suggesting renewed near-term buying strength, while Jupiter and Morpho lead gains during the same period.

A preview of NFP

The number is of much greater importance than usual as the Fed moves away from a forecasting framework and towards a current-data/rebuilding-credibility framework. While I have been pooh-poohing Warsh’s hawkish opener, I am also open to the idea that if he is serious about rebuilding credibility, he can find enough hawkish votes, and if June NFP is another hot one—July FOMC could be in play.

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.