Australian Dollar edges lower below 0.7150 as weak jobs data curb RBA hike bets
- AUD/USD softens to around 0.7140 in Friday’s Asian session.
- Traders will closely monitor the Middle East developments, especially the US-Iran peace deal.
- Australia’s Unemployment Rate climbed to the highest in about four and half years, with markets slashing chance of RBA rate hikes.
The AUD/USD pair loses ground to near 0.7140 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) as a rise in Australia’s jobless rate will give the Australian central bank more reason to delay another interest rate hike at the June meeting. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report is due later on Friday.
Australia’s Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.5% in April to reach the highest level since late 2021. The surprise rise in this figure will provide the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) with more reason to hold off on a fourth rate hike at its next meeting in June, as financial markets slashed the chance of more interest rate rises this year. Swaps showed an 11.7% odds of a hike at the RBA's next meeting in June.
Traders weigh the likelihood of a near-term deal to end the Middle East war. Iranian officials said on Thursday that no deal has been reached with the US, but gaps have been narrowed. Nonetheless, the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that Iran’s uranium enrichment and Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz remain among the sticking points.
Meanwhile, Marco Rubio stated that there are "some good signs" that a deal to end the Iran war could be in sight but added that he doesn't "want to be overly optimistic”.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
