Asian FX: Differentiation theme with Oil and AI – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect a mixed performance across Asian FX as a fragile US‑Iran ceasefire cools Oil from recent highs but does not deliver a clean de-escalation. They see Oil-sensitive currencies like Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), Indian Rupee (INR), Philippine Peso (PHP) and Thai Baht (THB) under pressure, while AI (Artificial intelligence) and tech proxies such as Taiwan Dollar (TWD), South Korean Won (KRW) and, to some extent, Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) may trade on a firmer footing.

Oil importers lag, tech proxies firmer

"US-Iran ceasefire appears to be holding for now, despite the earlier exchange of fire and fresh tensions around UAE and Strait of Hormuz."

"Nevertheless, that was enough to calm sentiment at the margin, with oil easing from recent highs. This underscores a fragile rather than a clean de-escalation."

"On relative terms with USD out of the equation, oil-sensitive currencies such as IDR, INR, PHP and THB should stay under pressure while AI/ tech proxy, TWD, KRW, and to some extent, MYR may continue to trade on a firmer footing. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

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