ECB's Escrivá: We are still not in a restrictive territory
European Central Bank (ECB) José Luis Escrivá said on Tuesday that they are still in not restrictive territory, as reported by Reuters.
Escrivá flags long-term rate risks but stops short of calling policy restrictive
FXS Speechtracker scores Escrivá at 6.2/10, slightly above the historic 6/10 baseline, pointing to a modestly more cautious tone. By stating that policy is “still not in a restrictive territory,” Escrivá leans mildly dovish on near-term Euro rate settings, yet the focus on the global upward trajectory of long-term rates and the pressure this can add to interest rates introduces a clear warning signal for bond markets.
The concern about persistently high energy prices and potential second-round effects is a classic inflation vigilance message, adding a hawkish layer to the otherwise non-restrictive policy assessment. Overall, the speech tilts toward a balanced stance: short-term dovishness on current Euro policy levels, offset by medium-term hawkishness on inflation risks and the possibility that rising long-term yields could force higher Euro interest rates.
Key takeaways
"What I would start to worry about is the global upward trajectory of long-term rates."
"This can add pressure to interest rates."
"In current situation high energy prices are worrisome if this persists and has second round effects."
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
