Euro FX – CoT commercial buy alert

Let’s talk about Euro FX futures and what the Commitment of Traders (CoT) data is telling us.

If you’re not familiar, CoT data is a weekly report from the CFTC that shows how different groups—like commercials (big businesses that hedge), speculators, and small traders—are positioned in the futures markets. It’s a goldmine for spotting trends before they happen.

On the chart, you’ll notice the typical commercial behavior: they buy when prices are weak and sell when prices are strong. Right now, their net position (futures + options) is around 18.6K contracts—about the same level as September 2022, which, by the way, preceded a significant rally.

What’s even more exciting? Our proprietary system just fired off a CoT signal last Friday! These aren’t mechanical trade entries but more like flashing lights telling you to shift focus to the daily chart and scout for setups there. Think of it as your heads-up alert.

That said, the signal gets canceled if prices dip below 1.03405—so keep that in mind.

Tomorrow, we’ll dive into the daily chart and look for actionable ideas. Make sure to check back for that breakdown. Stay tuned!

S&P 500 total return composition breakdown

Interesting table by "Topdown Charts".

Their comment was even more interesting...

"Stockmarket return drivers:

-dividends = consistent but declining

-earnings = important but variable

-valuations = best friend or worst enemy!

Focus on earnings and dividends for long-term growth, monitor valuations for risk and cyclical opportunity.