The crypto market is struggling to break out, but sentiment is improving

Market overview

On Monday morning, the crypto market capitalisation retreated to $2.16T from the $2.20T region, where we also saw increased selling pressure in the middle of last month. In the short term, market capitalisation remains below the 50-day moving average, showing no signs of a shift to a bullish trend.

The sentiment index has risen to 28, as without fresh downward price momentum, the indicator tends to move towards neutral territory. Current readings are the highest since early June, but, as in May, we urge caution against concluding that a bull market has returned until sentiment consolidates above the 50 level – something that has not been achieved since last September.

Bitcoin technically closed the week at its 200-week moving average, but is starting Monday with a fresh dip towards it, indicating that bullish potential is limited. At the same time, a divergence between price and the RSI is gradually forming on weekly timeframes. This is a positive signal for the medium term, but it is more a signal to stop being bearish rather than a bullish signal of a market reversal. Historically, a touch of the 200-week moving average has served as a decent signal that the main part of Bitcoin’s correction is coming to an end and has been a good point for gradually building up long-term positions. However, it is important to understand that this narrative could change quickly and does not promise a rapid rebound. 

News background

Inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed after eight weeks of outflows, during which investors withdrew nearly $8.5 billion from the funds. According to SoSoValue, net inflows into spot BTC ETFs amounted to $197.4 million for the week. Inflows into ETH ETFs totalled $84.4 million for the week.

JPMorgan believes that the real structural threat to Bitcoin lies in the shift by banks and major investment funds towards private blockchain platforms, which could deal a blow to public blockchains.

Demand for Bitcoin is recovering rapidly, though the growth is currently being driven mainly by retail traders in the speculative futures market, CryptoQuant notes. At the same time, the situation in the spot market remains less positive.

Bitcoin has approached a key long-term support level, according to the Power Law model that Fidelity has been tracking since 2015. However, without a return of liquidity, BTC could remain in a sideways trend for months to come. 

As a result of the latest adjustment, the mining difficulty of the first cryptocurrency has fallen by 5 per cent to 127.17 T. According to Glassnode, the smoothed seven-day moving average hash rate stands at 864.4 EH/s. 

Summary: The crypto market remains under pressure: market capitalisation is below the 50-day moving average, but sentiment is improving, whilst Bitcoin is holding steady around the 200-week moving average.