Ethereum Weekly Price Forecast: Early bullish momentum fades as Iran war weighs on markets

Ethereum price today: $2,130

• Ethereum staged a bullish move earlier in the week following institutional buying, whale accumulation and expanding derivatives appetite.
• Sustained Middle East war weighed on ETH, sparking a rejection near its realized price.
• ETH is under pressure near the $2,110 support level and the 20-day EMA.

Ethereum (ETH) has returned to a familiar zone around $2,100 on Friday after retreating from $2,390, its highest level since early February.

The top altcoin saw rising bullish momentum in the first half of the week, laced with institutional buying, whale accumulation and expanding derivatives appetite.

On Monday, Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion (BMNR) disclosed it purchased 60,999 ETH, lifting its holdings to 4.59 million ETH.

Whales (wallets with a balance of 10K-100K ETH) also displayed strong accumulation, while retailers continue to show weak hands.

Notably, ETH's derivatives market saw renewed interest from long traders after open interest surged to its highest level since last September, while sustained positive netflows among traders using market orders persisted.

However, volatile oil prices and dwindling rate cut expectations for 2026, spurred by Middle East tensions, eventually caught up with the top altcoin.

As a result, ETH saw a rejection near its realized price level or onchain cost basis of investors, around $2,310, indicating investors favoured stepping to the sidelines as they broke even. The level has historically triggered distribution if an uptrend is weak.

US spot-listed Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also flipped to net outflows, with investors offloading about $192.1 million across the past two days. The move comes after recording six consecutive days of net inflows.

Markets are looking to maintain a downside tilt heading into the weekend, with almost every asset class bowing into the weekend.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH continues to test $2,110 and 20-day EMA

Ethereum saw $39 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, led by $21.2 million in long liquidations, per Coinglass data.

ETH is facing pressure near the $2,110 support, where the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) convergence reinforces the horizontal level. A break lower would expose the next downside support at $1,740, followed by $1,524.

On the topside, initial resistance sits at $2,390, with additional barriers at $2,746 and $3,412 that could cap broader recovery attempts. A daily close above $2,390 would open the door to a more sustained rebound toward the mid-$2,000s, while a drop through $2,110 would return focus to the deeper supports and reassert the broader bearish backdrop.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 50, confirming balanced momentum after easing from overbought readings seen earlier in the month, while the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) cools from prior extremes, signaling waning upside pressure but no decisive bearish shift.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)