Elliott Wave analysis: Bitcoin’s countertrend bounce set to fail [Video]

Since establishing the all‑time high on October 6, 2025 at $126,272, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has entered a pronounced corrective phase. The Elliott Wave sequence from that peak suggests further downside potential, with the extreme area projected between $41,411 and $52,204. In the short term, the decline from the May 6, 2026 high concluded at $59,081, marking the completion of wave W. From that point, a corrective rally in wave X has unfolded, designed to retrace the cycle from the May 6 high. Internally, this rally has developed as another double three structure of lesser degree.

Advancing from wave W, wave (w) terminated at $64,506, followed by a pullback in wave (x) that ended at $60,670. Bitcoin then resumed higher in wave (y), reaching $67,278 and completing wave ((w)) of a higher degree. The subsequent pullback in wave ((x)) has progressed as a double three, with wave (w) ending at $64,430 and wave (x) at $66,398. The final leg, wave (y) of ((x)), is expected to conclude soon. Once complete, Bitcoin should turn higher in wave ((y)) to finish wave X, thereby correcting the cycle from the May 6, 2026 high.

Near term, as long as the pivot at $59,081 remains intact, Bitcoin retains scope for another upward leg. However, this corrective strength is anticipated to be temporary. The broader Elliott Wave outlook continues to favor renewed weakness, ultimately guiding prices toward the $41,411–$52,204 extreme area. This structure underscores the fragile nature of the current rally and highlights the prevailing bearish bias within the larger cycle.

Bitcoin 60-minute Elliott Wave chart

Bitcoin Elliott Wave [Video]