Crypto Weekly Radar: All eyes on Donald Trump’s ultimatum, US macroeconomic data

Crypto markets begin the week with mixed sentiment, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above $69,000 following last week’s rebound. Still, markets remain cautious as traders weigh risks stemming from Donald Trump’s renewed threats toward Iran ahead of the ultimatum set for Tuesday. On the economic calendar front, market participants are closely watching this week’s data releases for cues on interest rates, a key factor for the broader direction of risk assets.

Trump’s ultimatum triggers mixed sentiment

US President Donald Trump extended the “48-hour deadline” to 82 hours for Iran. Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, if the Strait of Hormuz is not open by ​Tuesday at 08:00 PM Eastern time.

Iran outlined a new condition and said that the transit through the strategic waterway could resume if part of the revenue is allocated to compensate for war-related damages.

Adding to this, Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that the resistance front could target the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea — another critical chokepoint for Oil transport. This fuels worries about a further disruption to key global trade routes and continues to weigh on investors’ sentiment.

Asian markets opened the week on a mixed note, while Bitcoin holds last week’s recovery, trading above $69,000 at the time of writing on Monday. Traders, however, remain cautious amid the lingering risk of further escalation in the Middle East.

Bitcoin nears the midpoint of the channel

Bitcoin price is trading above $69,000 on Monday after recovering over 4% in the previous week. The near-term bias turns mildly bullish as price rebounds from the channel’s lower boundary, with prices now pivoting back toward the channel midpoint around $69,300.

The cluster of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) continues to apply overhead pressure, with the 50-day EMA around $70,400 capping the immediate recovery attempt. Yet, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has crossed back into positive territory and turned higher, hinting at improving upside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart at 51 reinforces a potential shift toward buyer control after oscillating around the midline, suggesting that recent dips attracted demand rather than accelerating selling.

Initial resistance stands at the channel top near $72,600, followed by a higher barrier around $75,000 if buyers extend the current bounce above the 50-day EMA. A daily close beyond the channel resistance would expose the $78,000 region as the next notable upside target. 

On the downside, immediate support lies near $68,000, ahead of a more important floor at $66,400, aligned with the recent swing low and the lower channel boundary at around $65,900. A break below this support area would negate the nascent bullish tone and reopen the path toward $64,000, while sustained trade above $68,000 keeps the focus on further recovery within or above the channel.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Volatile week ahead

Market participants should keep an eye on the US macroeconomic data releases scheduled for this week (see economic calendar below). 

The week kicks off with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) release, which gauges the health of the US Services sector. Tuesday brings heightened geopolitical focus with Donald Trump’s ultimatum on Iran’s infrastructure. Attention then shifts to the Federal Reserve  (Fed) meeting minutes on Wednesday, followed by key US data, including February’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index and Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) final estimate on Thursday, and March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation on Friday.

Token unlocks to watch for

According to the DefliLlama chart below, over $54 million worth of tokens are being unlocked this week. Major unlocks are scheduled to take place on Wednesday ($24.44 million), followed by Friday’s $19.02 million and Sunday’s $2.28 million.

Stable (STABLE), Babylon Protocol (BABY), Big Time (BIGTIME), Flare (FLR) and Aptos (APT) are worth $23.84 million, $8.38 million, $8.23 million, $1.1 million and $9.62 million, respectively. These are the key tokens to watch for. Increased supply resulting from token unlocks frequently generates negative sentiment among investors, which can weigh on prices.

Apart from token unlocks, another key event to monitor this week is Binance’s announcement that, starting Monday, several new trading pairs will be added to its Spot Altcoin Liquidity Enhancement Program. This initiative — one of the first of its kind by a major exchange — aims to improve liquidity in the altcoin market. Key updates include expanding the number of eligible trading pairs from 20 to 40, as shown in the chart below.