Crypto: Capitulation or double bottom?

Market overview

The crypto market cap continues to decline, losing nearly 5.5% over the past 24 hours to $2.19 trillion, practically repeating the extremes of early February. The last time the market was consistently lower was in September 2024. If there is a rebound by the end of the day, we can talk about the formation of a double bottom, which will give hope for a rebound of about 10%. However, a failure to rebound will signal the end of the recovery, opening the potential for a further 25% decline to the 2023 consolidation range.

Bitcoin fell below $63K at the start of the day, going below the previous day's lows after the recovery rebound stalled. BTCUSD slipped below $60K in early February, but there was a steady tug-of-war near current levels, drawing attention to the outcome of the local battle between bulls and bears. The outcome will determine whether we see a recovery rebound or a new downward momentum. In our view, the market has not yet bottomed out in the bear market, and the real capitulation is still ahead.

News background

According to CoinShares, global investment in crypto funds fell by $288 million last week, with net outflows observed over the past five weeks. Investments in Bitcoin fell by $215 million, and in Ethereum by $37 million. Investments in XRP rose by $4 million, in Solana by $3 million, and in Chainlink by $1 million.

Large investors who bought Bitcoin in the last six months have accumulated unrealised losses of about $26 billion, according to CryptoQuant. The level of unrealised losses among whales is becoming increasingly alarming.

According to Lookonchain, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is once again selling the second-largest cryptocurrency. Over the past two days, he has sold 1,869 ETH worth $3.67 million.

Bitcoin will fall below $55K, according to 75% of users on the Polymarket prediction platform. Bets on a drop below $50K and $45K are supported by 62% and 47% of traders, respectively.

Bitcoin is experiencing a ‘crisis of confidence’ after falling nearly 50% from its all-time high, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. They estimate that the market sees no new catalysts for growth.

Strategy bought 592 BTC ($39.8 million) last week at an average price of $67,286. Strategy now owns 717,722 BTC, purchased for $54.56 billion at an average price of $76,020.
BitMine acquired 51,162 ETH over the past week. The company already owns 4.42 million coins and has fulfilled 73% of its plan to accumulate 5% of all Ether.