Can BTC hold above 64K as Oil and Treasury yields rise?

Bitcoin is under pressure after yesterday's gains, as concerns over ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran hurt risk sentiment and keep inflation worries alive. 

President Trump said he is not looking to extend the 60-day U.S. ceasefire with Iran, which expired yesterday. He also threatened to bomb Oman, claiming that the country could be standing in the way of a peace deal. As a result, oil prices and inflation concerns are rising, pushing Treasury yields higher. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since January 2025. 

30-year Treasury yields at a 19-year high –What does this mean for BTC? 

However, it is also worth noting that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is at its highest level since 2007, as investors weigh both rising inflation and growing fiscal risks. 

The rise in long-dated yields comes as elevated oil prices raise concerns that energy costs could keep inflation higher for longer and limit the Federal Reserve's ability to ease monetary policy. At the same time, the move in longer-term yields suggests investors are also becoming more concerned about the U.S. fiscal outlook and the growing amount of government borrowing. 

In the near term, higher Treasury yields can weigh on non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and gold by making yield-bearing assets more attractive. 

Longer term, however, the picture could be different. If long-term yields continue rising because of concerns over U.S. debt, deficits and inflation, Bitcoin could increasingly be viewed as an alternative asset and a potential hedge against those risks. 

Fed rate outlook and FOMC Minutes 

For now, though, the focus remains on the immediate impact of higher yields and oil prices and what they mean for the outlook for interest rates. 

Weaker U.S. data last week saw markets increase expectations that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in September. However, rising oil prices complicate that outlook by increasing the risk that inflation could remain elevated. 

Attention will turn to tomorrow's Fed minutes from the July FOMC meeting. Any indication that policymakers are prepared to remain in wait-and-see mode could support Bitcoin. However, a more hawkish tone, particularly around the inflation risks from higher energy prices, could put further pressure on the cryptocurrency. 

White House crypto meeting could support BTC 

Separately, the White House is expected to host a meeting with cryptocurrency, prediction market and traditional finance executives this week in one of the administration's highest-profile crypto-focused events to date. 

The timing is important, as the Senate has pushed consideration of the Clarity Act out until September, leaving the closely watched market structure bill with a tighter legislative window. 

The meeting could signal that Trump does not want to wait for Congress and could instead look to the SEC and CFTC to help create a more crypto-friendly regulatory framework. 

Wednesday's meeting could therefore give markets some clues over how aggressively the administration intends to push this forward. 

However, there is also a risk of a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news reaction. If the meeting produces little that is concrete, some of the optimism already priced into BTC could quickly unwind. 

Bitcoin technical analysis 

Bitcoin is in consolidation mode, finding support from the rising trendline dating back to early July. However, gains remain capped by the 50 EMA, keeping the bias modestly bearish. The price is currently testing the 50 EMA around 64.3K. 

Buyers will need to reclaim the 50 EMA to expose the 100 EMA at 66.3K, before bringing 67K, the July high, into focus. A move above 67K would create a higher high and expose the 200 EMA around 71.5K. Above here, the longer-term outlook becomes more bullish. 

Failure to rise above the 50 EMA could see Bitcoin retest the rising trendline support at 62.7K. A break below this level would create a lower low, opening the door to 60K, the psychological level, followed by 57.7K, the 2026 low. Below here, attention turns to 55K and then 50K, levels last seen in 2024.