Can Bitcoin hold 65k ahead of key US CPI data this week?

Bitcoin is steady near 65k on Monday, holding on to recent gains following Friday's weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll report and as investors cautiously look ahead to U.S. inflation data later this week. 

On Friday, the NFP report showed that the U.S. lost 23k jobs in July, defying expectations for an increase of around 85k. June payrolls were also revised lower from 57k to just 20k, reinforcing the view that the U.S. labour market is cooling more rapidly than initially thought. 

However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, its lowest level since June 2025 and the participation rate dropped to its lowest level since 2021. This low-hire, low-fire environment gives the Fed room to hold off on a near-term rate hike. The market lowered expectations for a September hike to 45% from 57%. 

Reduced hawkish Fed bets supported risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, 65k is acting as a barrier to further gains as investors look cautiously ahead to the U.S. inflation report on Wednesday, which could provide fresh clues over the Fed's path for interest rates. 

What to expect from US CPI data 

With energy prices volatile and sensitive to developments in the Middle East, inflation data has taken on increased importance in recent months. Brent is trading around $83 a barrel as geopolitical tensions remain and the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is still unresolved. 

Expectations are for U.S. headline CPI to ease slightly to 3.4%, while core CPI is also expected to ease to 2.5%. However, given the volatility seen in energy prices, which rose sharply at the beginning of July, there is a risk of an upside surprise. 

Hotter-than-expected inflation could quickly reverse the impact of Friday's weaker jobs data, pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher while putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin. 

On the other hand, cooler-than-expected inflation, combined with the weaker jobs report, could see the market further price out a September rate hike. This could provide enough support for BTC to break meaningfully above 65,000 and move towards 70,000. 

BTC technical analysis

Bitcoin has recovered from the 57.7K 2026 low and is attempting to reclaim the 50 EMA and falling trendline resistance dating back to the October record high, around 65K. 

Supported by the RSI above 50, buyers will look to break above these key resistance levels, as well as 67.5K, the June 15 swing high, and the 100 EMA. A move above this zone would expose the 200 EMA at 73K. Above here, the outlook becomes more constructive. 

On the downside, support is seen at 62K, the August low. A break below here would bring 57.7K, the 2026 low, back into focus. Below here, attention could turn to 55K and 50K, levels last seen in 2024.