Can Bitcoin hold $60k through a crucial week?

Bitcoin is falling at the start of the new week, slipping below 63k and giving back last week's gains. Sentiment has turned more cautious amid renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran and ahead of a key week with U.S. inflation data, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress, and the latest developments surrounding the CLARITY Act. 

Escalating US - Iran tension raise inflation concerns ahead of CPI data 

Bitcoin is under pressure but remains within a familiar trading range amid deteriorating risk sentiment as the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend and issued conflicting statements regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has said the strategic waterway is closed, while the U.S. maintains that it remains open. 

Oil prices have jumped more than 4% on Monday, reviving concerns over energy-driven inflation and the implications for interest rates. 

The rise in oil prices comes ahead of Tuesday's U.S. CPI report, which is expected to show inflation easing to 3.8% YoY in June from 4.2% in May. While cooling inflation would be encouraging, CPI remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. 

A hotter-than-expected inflation reading, particularly if accompanied by further gains in oil prices, could reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer - a headwind for Bitcoin. 

Will Fed Warsh double down on the 2% inflation target? 

Attention will also turn to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony. Unlike his post-FOMC press conference, lawmakers are likely to press him more directly on the inflation outlook and the prospect of further policy tightening. Any doubling down on bringing inflation back to target could strengthen the hawkish narrative and weigh on cryptocurrencies. 

CLARITY Act could be a key BTC driver 

Alongside the macro backdrop, this is also a potentially pivotal week for crypto regulation. The Senate returns with the CLARITY Act entering what could be its final push before the August recess. For the crypto industry, the legislation may prove just as important, if not more so, than this week's inflation data. 

The bill would establish a federal market structure for digital assets by dividing regulatory control between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This would deliver a framework the industry has sought for years. 

It is far from a done deal. The question of how to handle stablecoins that pay interest like rewards remains unresolved. If a revised draft secures sufficient support from Democrats, a floor vote before the August 7 recess remains possible. Otherwise, the bill's prospects could deteriorate significantly. 

Should the legislation advance, it could provide a key positive catalyst for Bitcoin by reducing regulatory uncertainty. 

This week's events come as Bitcoin has now spent 307 days trading within the $60,000-$70,000 range. That marks the third-longest consolidation within any $10,000 price band in Bitcoin's history, behind only the $10,000-$20,000 and $20,000-$30,000 ranges seen during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, respectively. 

Bitcoin technical analysis 

Bitcoin continues to trade below both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, keeping the general technical picture bearish. The price recovered from the 2026 low at $57.7K and reclaimed the 20-day SMA. However, rejection at the 50-day SMA reinforces the medium- and longer-term bearish outlook. 

Sellers will look for a move below the 20-day SMA at $61.8K. A break below here would expose the psychological $60K level, followed by the 2026 low at $57.7K. Below there, attention turns to $55K. 

On the upside, buyers first need to reclaim the 50-day SMA around $64.5K, which also coincides with the July high. A move above this level would bring $67.3K, the June 15 swing high, into focus. A break above there would create a higher high and expose the 200-day SMA near $74K.