Bitwise files for prediction market ETFs under PredictionShares brand tracking 2028 presidential election and midterms
- Matt Hougan cites the growing scale and importance of prediction markets.
- The filing follows a similar submission by Roundhill Investments days earlier.
- James Seyffart and Eleanor Terrett confirmed the regulatory filing.
Bitwise Asset Management filed with the SEC for prediction market-backed ETFs under the brand name PredictionShares on February 17, 2026. James Seyffart, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, broke the news at 21:55 GMT. Eleanor Terrett, crypto and finance journalist, followed with additional details at 23:02 GMT.
The proposed funds would track contracts tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential election and upcoming House and Senate midterm elections. PredictionShares will serve as a dedicated Bitwise platform providing exposure to prediction markets, positioning the product line as a structural business rather than an opportunistic single offering.
Bitwise follows Roundhill Investments, which filed similar applications days earlier. The filings represent the latest expansion of thematic and event-driven exchange-traded products following the success of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO, stated prediction markets are accelerating in both scale and importance, making client exposure an opportunity the firm couldn't pass up. The comment frames prediction markets as maturing into an asset class warranting institutional attention rather than remaining a fringe speculation tool.
Retail access through brokerage accounts faces SEC and CFTC regulatory scrutiny
The ETF structure would allow retail investors and financial advisors to access political event contracts through traditional brokerage accounts at firms like Schwab and Fidelity without registering on standalone prediction market platforms. The accessibility removes friction but raises regulatory questions.
The SEC and CFTC maintain cautious stances on event contracts considered "gaming" or susceptible to manipulation. The agencies have historically restricted certain prediction market activities, particularly around political outcomes, citing concerns about market integrity and potential for insider influence.
Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt have driven growing volumes in political prediction contracts, demonstrating demand exists. Kalshi secured a federal court ruling in 2023 allowing it to list election contracts after CFTC opposition, establishing precedent but not eliminating regulatory uncertainty.
Author
Isai Alexei
Independent Analyst
I am Isai Alexei. I work as a journalist and financial analyst covering cryptocurrency markets and traditional securities. I have spent ten years analyzing digital assets, trading activity, and market structure.
