Bitcoin’s volatility has nearly disappeared – The risk hasn’t

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are yet to see outflows this month, bringing in $754 million in the first week of August. Yet, Bitcoin remains steady at $64,700, while options flow favors protection at $62,000 and $63,000.

The opposing signals point to a market with a spot bid but limited conviction. ETF demand has seemingly returned, but derivatives traders are guarding against a retreat ahead of today’s U.S. jobs report.

The options market adds another layer. Put options, giving holders the right but not the obligation to sell, accounted for 53.8% of Bitcoin options volume over the past 24 hours, and three of the four most-traded contracts were puts at $62,000 or $63,000 expiring Aug. 10, Aug. 14 and Aug. 28, CoinGlass data shows.

Calls still represent 60.7% of total open interest, showing that the broader options market remains tilted toward calls even as recent trading focuses on downside puts.

Protection is also cheap. Deribit’s DVOL index, which tracks Bitcoin’s expected 30-day volatility, is near 35, down from a high of 90 earlier this year. That implied volatility tracks the market’s pricing of future movements, implying not much is expected to happen in the near future.

Luke Deans, senior research associate at Bitwise, told CoinDesk the compression extends across 30-, 60- and 90-day trading ranges and from one-week to three-month options.

“The market is effectively becoming crowded around the expectation that very little will happen,” he said.

Macro data from the U.S. will test that assumption. Economists expect payrolls to have increased by roughly 97,500 in July after a 57,000 gain in June, with unemployment holding at 4.2%, according to FactSet.

A strong reading could lift bond yields and reinforce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase. A miss could pull yields lower, though it would also revive concerns about weakening growth.

“Thin participation and market illiquidity can create fragile conditions in which relatively modest changes in supply or demand produce outsized price moves,” Deans added.

“The key conclusion is that Bitcoin’s lack of movement should not be mistaken for an absence of risk,” he said. Stay alert!