Bitcoin’s resilience is tested by global bond selloff

Bitcoin is hovering around $76,500 on Wednesday as the global bond selloff continues, putting the cryptocurrency's August rally to the test. 

Japan's 10-year government bond yields are above 3% for a second straight session and at their highest level in 30 years. U.S. and European yields are also rising, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since January 2025 and German 10-year bund yields at a 15-year high. 

Rising yields have come as Brent climbed above $95 a barrel amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, fuelling concerns over further disruption to energy supplies. 

Higher bond yields have lifted the U.S. dollar and also raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and gold. Meanwhile, expectations surrounding a September rate hike have also ramped up considerably in recent sessions. 

September rate hike? 

The market is now pricing in a 66% chance of a September rate hike following Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, up from 35% last week. Bitcoin tends to perform better in lower interest rate environments, owing to increased liquidity. 

Gold has fallen to a three-week low, but Bitcoin's pullback from the August $81.5K high has so far been limited. Crypto's relative resilience against an increasingly challenging macro backdrop is notable. While dip buying continues, this suggests a consolidation phase following August's 25% surge, allowing the market to work off overbought conditions. 

US NFP report the next major catalyst 

The question now is whether upcoming U.S. economic data will further cement expectations for a September rate hike. The market is focused on this Friday's nonfarm payroll report, in addition to one more CPI inflation release due next week before the September 16 Fed rate decision. 

With the Fed increasingly data-dependent, the market could react sharply to any significant upside or downside surprise. 

August was a strong month for exchange-traded product demand. Global Bitcoin ETPs saw inflows of 52,152 BTC, the most since November 2024, while Strategy was also buying again for the first time since June, accumulating 4,603 BTC for US$369.7 million last week. 

This marks a sharp reversal from previous months of equity selling, including record ETF outflows in May and June. Persistent institutional demand could help BTC recover higher. 

What does seasonality tell us? 

September has historically been a difficult month for Bitcoin, with CoinGlass data showing an average return of around -2.9%. However, the recent performance is more encouraging, with Bitcoin finishing higher in each of the past three Septembers. 

So while seasonality argues for caution, it isn't necessarily a reason to expect another sell-off.

Bitcoin technical analysis 

After breaking above the 50 EMA and rising to $81.5K, Bitcoin has eased back and is consolidating around $77K. The pullback has also taken the RSI out of overbought territory, allowing some room for further upside. 

Support is seen at $77K, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $57.7K–$82.9K move. Below here, attention turns to $73.4K, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and the 200 EMA at $72.4K. A break below $67K would negate the near-term bullish trend. 

Buyers will look to break above $80K to extend gains towards $82.9K, the May high. A move above this level would bring $90K into focus, followed by $95K.