Bitcoin's 44% gain in third quarter teases full-blown crypto bull run

As the end of the third quarter nears, Bitcoin is standing tall some 44% higher, its best performance since the final three months of 2024.

Gold is up 8.7% while the S&P 500 has added just 2%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's tech-heavy index, Nasdaq, has gained just 2%, according to data source TradingView.

This marks a complete change from early this year when bitcoin was the underperformer and stocks, gripped by the AI fervour, were on a tear.
The good news for BTC bulls doesn't end there. The cryptocurrency is also outperforming names like NVDA, one of the world's biggest companies, up 11%.

And yet, bitcoin doesn't necessarily look expensive based purely on where it trades relative to its record price. Despite the solid rally, prices are still down 48% from the record price of $126,000 in October last year.

Other tokens have also chalked up impressive gains. ETH, XRP, SOL, UNI and NEAR have registered gains between 40%-150%.

The initial rise was mainly driven by oversold conditions that attracted bargain hunters and a short squeeze that pushed prices higher. But recently, a regulatory tailwind has kicked in.

The rally, according to Tagus Capital, is "anchored by the U.S. SEC’s Sept. 17 decision to grant a temporary, five-year innovation exemption allowing qualifying venues to facilitate secondary trading of tokenized U.S. stocks using automated market makers and blockchain liquidity pools."

The firm sees Ethereum benefiting disproportionately from this regulatory opening as it serves as the leading public blockchain for tokenized assets.

Some analysts are now convinced a full-blown crypto market bull run has begun, but remain cautious.

"In our view, this is already a bull market, but that does not rule out sudden pullbacks, so it is worth exercising heightened caution until clearer signals of a transition to active growth emerge," Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email.

"The optimism surrounding altcoins is clearly boosting the bulls’ chances in BTC, but in this case, it is better not to get ahead of oneself by rushing to buy coins," he warned.