Bitcoin tests $76K resistance as rising exchange inflows signal potential selling pressure

Bitcoin has moved back toward the $76,000 resistance zone, renewing expectations of a short-term recovery after an extended period of bearish pressure. However, a Thursday report from CryptoQuant suggests a more cautious outlook, pointing to a sharp rise in exchange inflows that may indicate large holders are preparing to sell.

Hourly Bitcoin inflows to exchanges climbed to roughly 11,000 BTC, the highest level since late December, as prices approached $76,000. CryptoQuant noted that such spikes have historically coincided with increased selling pressure when they occur near key resistance levels. 

A similar pattern was observed in March, when inflows reached 9,000 BTC alongside a high concentration of large deposits, preceding a short-term price pullback. The latest reading exceeds that level, suggesting a potentially stronger wave of distribution as prices test resistance.

Large holders' activities signal increasing selling pressure

Large investors have significantly influenced the movements. The average Bitcoin deposit to exchanges rose to 2.25 BTC, its highest daily level since July 2024. CryptoQuant highlighted that the increase was driven in part by sizable transfers to Binance, including individual deposits exceeding 1,000 BTC.

A rising average deposit size typically indicates activity from large holders, while retail-driven inflows tend to reduce the average. Similar conditions were seen in January, when elevated deposit sizes preceded a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price. Large deposits also accounted for less than 10% of total exchange inflows just days ago, but have since risen to more than 40%.

“This sharp acceleration in large-deposit concentration confirms that institutional and large-holder distribution is driving the exchange inflow spike,” CryptoQuant wrote.

Historically, such elevated concentrations have been associated with heightened near-term selling pressure, particularly when they emerge quickly during resistance tests.

Profit-taking activity, although increasing, remains below levels typically associated with market peaks. Daily realized profits are estimated at around $500 million, still below the $1 billion threshold that has historically marked more significant distribution phases during bear market rallies. This indicates that while some investors are beginning to lock in gains, broader profit-taking may still be in its early stages. 

As more holders who accumulated between $65,000 and $76,000 move into profit, the space for potential sellers continues to grow. The report notes that if Bitcoin maintains its position above $76,000 or advances toward the $76,800 Traders’ Realized Price, profit-booking could accelerate toward the $1 billion level. Such a development would likely increase selling pressure and raise the risk of reversal in the current rally.

Bitcoin trades above $75,100 at the time of publication on Thursday, up 0.5% over the past 24 hours.