Bitcoin slips as rate and regulation concerns build

Bitcoin prices (BTCUSD) has been dipping below $74,000 this week after giving back the gains from the US midterm elections. Hotter-than-expected US inflation data has raised expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in the December FOMC meeting, while uncertainty over US crypto rules and outflows from spot bitcoin funds have added pressure.

Bitcoin prices fell to around $75,600 as election results came in, then rose above $80,000. The rally faded, and on 5 November it fell to $75,250, its lowest level since 16 September. On 10 November, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% MoM in October, above the 0.3% economists expected. Bitcoin prices then dropped below $72,800, from around $77,000 on the morning of the vote.

Crypto market bill remains stalled

The CLARITY Act, a bill that would set federal rules for crypto markets, passed the House of Representatives in 2025 but has stalled in the Senate. A vote to start debate on 15 September fell 11 votes short of the 60 needed. The new Congress takes over on 3 January 2027, and NPR reported before the election that a change in control of either chamber would make the bill harder to pass. Markets are also concerned about closer scrutiny of crypto firms, particularly around anti-money-laundering and risk management rules.

Miners and funds are selling

MARA Holdings said in its third-quarter shareholder letter, filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on 9 November, that it sold 13,597 bitcoin after the quarter ended for about $1.1 billion. It used $750 million of that to fully repay loans backed by its bitcoin. The sale equals roughly 40% of the 34,012 bitcoin MARA held at the end of September. At the same time, the firm indicated that it may continue to sell in the future.

Strategy said in an SEC filing on 9 November that it bought 1,036 bitcoin for $81.9 million last week, bringing its holdings to 850,364. It spent more than twice as much, $188.3 million, buying back its own preferred shares.

US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) had $1.28 billion of net outflows in the week to 6 November, the most since late June, according to Farside data. The outflows continued into this week.

"Bitcoin may stay volatile in the near term. Markets are weighing possible policy changes in the new Congress, as well as what upcoming US data means for the Fed. At the same time, institutional demand remains weak, with some large holders selling to pay down debt and may continue to do so in the future amid the absence of positive catalysts," Christopher Tahir, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness.

For traders, the next release is US producer prices for October on 13 November, which track the prices businesses receive for their goods and services. After the inflation data, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed an 88.8% chance of a 0.25% hike at the Fed's 8 to 9 December meeting and an 11.2% chance of a 0.50% hike.