Bitcoin rallies above major cost bases as bulls eye $96K resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) has moved above several cost bases, strengthening the structure of its recent recovery as selling pressure remains relatively subdued.

Bitcoin faces $96.7K resistance as price breaks above True Market Mean

In a report on Wednesday, Glassnode stated that Bitcoin’s latest move is notable because the top crypto has recovered above the True Market Mean at roughly $77,000 and the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis. True Market Mean is the average onchain acquisition cost of coins actively traded in secondary markets.

The firm also noted that the largest concentration of long-term holder (LTH) supply is now below the current price, around $84,000-$85,000.

“The next major resistance is the mean MVRV price at $96.7K. It is the Realized Price multiplied by Bitcoin's long-term average MVRV, and it marks where the average holder's profit is back to its long-term norm,” Glassnode wrote.

The firm identified $77,000 as the main downside support. A sustained hold above $84,000 would leave the path toward $96,700 open, while a move below $84,000 could bring the $77,000 level back into focus.

Options positioning is also concentrated around the upper end of that range. Glassnode highlighted that dealer positioning on Deribit built up in a single day, with positive gamma around the $95,000 strikes reaching its highest level on the chart.

The dealer hedging could accelerate Bitcoin’s moves between spot and $92,000, while the effect around $95,000 could become more restrictive.

“That level sits just below the $96.7K mean MVRV price, so $95K-$97K is the first major test if the rally continues,” Glassnode stated.

Despite Bitcoin’s price rise, investors have not been realizing profits at the intensity seen during previous market peaks. Glassnode shared that weekly Net Realized Profit/Loss during the current move remains a fraction of the levels recorded at the 2024 and 2025 tops.

“Sharp rallies usually bring heavy profit taking. This one has not, so far,” the firm added.

Almost all short-term holders are now in profit, putting them in a position to sell into further strength. However, realized profit across the broader holder base remains relatively low, suggesting that the return to profitability has not yet translated into heavy distribution.

“If profit taking stays at this level, the rally has room to continue,” Glassnode wrote.

Altcoins gain without major leverage buildup

The recovery has also broadened beyond Bitcoin. Glassnode highlighted that 72.5% of tracked altcoins outperformed Bitcoin over the past week.

At the same time, traders have added relatively little leverage to the move. Open interest in altcoin perpetual futures has barely increased over the past 30 days, while fewer than half of the tracked markets added positions.

“The altcoin rally is driven mostly by spot buying, which makes a sudden wave of forced selling less likely,” Glassnode noted.

A broad increase in altcoin open interest would provide a stronger indication that the rally is becoming overheated.

Bitcoin is trading at $84,400, down 2% over the past 24 hours following a surge in US Treasury yields.