Bitcoin holds above $60K as markets eye US jobs data, ETFs set for worst month ever

Bitcoin is edging higher on Monday, pushing back above the 60k level after hovering around this key support zone for the past week. 

The largest cryptocurrency has stabilised around the psychological 60k level and the 2026 low after falling 6% last week, taking losses for June to 18.5%—its worst monthly performance since June 2022, when a string of crypto failures culminated in the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX. 

Bitcoin has struggled under the weight of a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. Following June’s hawkish FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh, BTC rallies have largely been viewed as selling opportunities. 

Data last week reinforced that view. U.S. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, remained elevated at 3.4%, while GDP was revised higher, highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy despite restrictive monetary policy. Together, the data strengthen the case for the Fed to keep policy tight. 

US Fed chair Warsh and NFP report to drive BTC 

Attention now turns to Thursday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Thursday, which is expected to show another month of solid job creation. A resilient labour market would reinforce the Fed's focus on the inflation part of the dual mandate and could support expectations for further policy tightening. 

Fed Chair Kevin Walsh is also due to speak at the Sintra ECB Economic Forum on Wednesday. Markets will be watching closely for further clues on the Fed's assessment of inflation and the outlook for interest rates. 

Markets are currently pricing a 25-basis-point rate hike as soon as September, with some investors also seeing scope for further tightening before year-end. Higher interest rates support Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, reducing liquidity and creating a less supportive backdrop for non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and gold, while helping lift the dollar to a 13-month high. 

BTC ETF outflows hit $4 billion in June

Meanwhile, the institutional sell-off shows little sign of slowing. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.79 billion last week, the second-largest weekly outflow on record, surpassed only by the $2.61 billion withdrawn in February last year. 

Across June, ETF outflows reached $4.06 billion, the largest monthly outflow since BTC ETFs launched in January 2024. The continued withdrawal of institutional capital suggests that conviction among larger investors remains weak. Until ETF flows stabilise, rallies are likely to remain vulnerable to selling pressure. 

Bitcoin technical analysis 

BTC/USDT is hovering around 60k following a 6% decline last week. The price continues to trade below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs, maintaining a bearish bias, which, combined with the RSI below 50, keeps sellers hopeful of further downside. 

Sellers will be looking for a decisive break below 60k to bring 53k, the August 2024 low, into focus, ahead of the psychological 50k level. 

Any recovery would first need to reclaim the 20 SMA at 63k before rising above the June 15 swing high at 67k to create a higher high and expose the 50 SMA at 69k. A break above this level would bring the 200 SMA at 75k into focus.