Dogecoin Price Forecast: Whale selling and bearish momentum threaten further correction

Dogecoin (DOGE) approaches the previously broken ascending trendline on Friday after double-digit losses so far this week. The bearish pressure is intensifying as some whales offload DOGE tokens. Meanwhile, weakening technical momentum indicators suggest further correction in the meme coin.

Some whales offloading tokens

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data supports a bearish outlook for Dogecoin, as some large-wallet holders (whales) are reducing exposure.

The metric indicates that whales holding between 1 million and 10 million (yellow line) and 10 million and 100 million tokens (blue line) have shed 100 million tokens since Tuesday. This indicates some whales are reducing exposure, signaling potential profit-booking activity and adding to near-term downside risks for the dog-themed meme coin.

CryptoQuant’s summary data also shows a bearish outlook for the dog-themed meme coin. DOGE’s spot and futures markets show overheating conditions, while the futures market shows large whale orders but with sell-side dominance. This highlights a bearish, cautious sentiment bias among meme coin traders.

Some signs of optimism

Despite the price drop, Dogecoin derivatives show some signs of optimism. CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for DOGE reads 1.18 on Friday, nearing the highest level over a month. A ratio being above one indicates bullish sentiment, as traders bet that asset prices will rise.

In addition, DOGE funding rates flipped positive on September 9 and remain constructive, reading 0.0010% on Friday, indicating longs are paying shorts and signaling bullish sentiment.

Dogecoin technical outlook: Bearish momentum indicators

Dogecoin price trades at $0.085 on Friday after falling over 11% so far this week. DOGE holds just above the broken upward trendline support at $0.084 but remains capped by a dense band of Exponential Moving Averages overhead, keeping the near-term bias bearish. 

The 100-day EMA at $0.086 is the first ceiling, followed closely by the 50-day EMA at $0.088 and the horizontal barrier around $0.088, while the 200-day EMA higher at $0.093 reinforces the idea of rallies being constrained. 

Momentum indicators echo this soft tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near a neutral-to-weak 40 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line below zero and its signal, with a negative, slightly expanding histogram that suggests sellers retain the upper hand.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the reclaimed trendline area around $0.084; a daily close below this level would expose the next structural floors at $0.078 and $0.070. 

On the topside, bulls would need to clear the EMA cluster starting at $0.086 and $0.088 to ease bearish pressure, with a more meaningful shift likely only if price extends toward and overcomes the 200-day EMA at $0.093 and, later, the major resistance at $0.102.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)