XAU/USD Price forecast: Middle East crisis intensifies, Gold up

XAU/USD Current price: $ 4,075

• The US Dollar, Gold, and stocks all trade with a firmer tone on Tuesday.
• US President Donald Trump threatens to intensify attacks on Iran.
• XAU/USD gains upward traction in the near-term, approaches $4,100.

The US Dollar (USD) trades with a firmer tone on Tuesday, but so does Gold. The bright metal is moving away from the $4,000 mark and trades closer to an intraday high of $4,084 than to the psychological threshold. Indeed, markets are concern-flooded, which means stronger safe-havens should not surprise. And yet, for the first time in a long time, the precious metal seems to be outpacing the USD.

The usual Middle East concerns were exacerbated by United States (US) President Donald Trump threatening Canada with massive 50% tariffs on a variety of goods over claims of Ottawa’s “continuous discrimination” against American products, supposedly coming into effect in 30 days. And while Trump is likely to TACO, market participants are reading it as yet another stone in the road to sustainable inflation.

Mid-American session, both Gold and the USD are gaining upward traction, alongside Wall Street, quite an uncommon scenario. And that, despite comments from President Trump at the White House, threatening to escalate attacks on Iran, while saying he is no longer willing to negotiate with Tehran.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

It seems too early to call for a bullish continuation in XAU/USD. In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD, the pair turned bullish as it remains above both the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,067.46 and the 20-period SMA at $4,017.34. The 200-period SMA at $4,133.13 stays overhead as a broader trend barrier, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims firmly north around 61 and the advance of the Momentum indicator reinforces constructive upside pressure.

XAU/USD's bullish potential remains capped in the daily chart as it remains well below the 200-day and 100-day SMAs at $4,495.98 and $4,510.85, respectively. The metal trades just above the 20-day SMA at $4,062.64, which offers near-term support and hints at ongoing consolidation rather than a clear bullish reversal. Momentum conditions are mixed, with the RSI indicator at 46 and the 14-day Momentum also developing below its midline, suggesting a modest positive bias that has yet to overcome the broader overhead structure.

On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 100-period SMA at $4,067.46, which converges with the 20-day SMA at $4,062.64, ahead of a deeper technical floor at the 20-period SMA near $4,017.34. On the topside, the key resistance to watch is the longer-term 200-period SMA at $4,133.13, and a sustained break above this zone would likely open the way for an extension of the current bullish phase in the metal. Further gains expose the $4,200 mark.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Yen slide toward recent lows keeps Japan intervention risk in focus

Analysts at Scotiabank highlight that the Yen is “drifting back toward its early July / late June lows,” a renewed bout of weakness that is “likely garnering attention from currency officials at the Ministry of Finance.” They add that they “remain concerned about the possibility of official intervention, or at the very least comments threatening potential action” as USD/JPY grinds higher. From a technical perspective, Scotiabank flags “the importance of its late June high around 162.80” for USD/JPY and “see support at 162.00,” levels that traders are likely to watch closely amid heightened sensitivity to any signals from Japanese authorities.