USD/JPY price forecast: US Dollar/Japanese Yen faces rejection at 0.236 arc

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): Arc cycle analysis

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 30m chart, U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen is interacting with the 0.236 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Bullish momentum has faded near this boundary, indicating that the upper Arc continues to cap upside expansion.

Metric	Reading
Market Bias	Neutral-Bearish
Preferred Scenario	Two-Way Navigation Within the Current Arc Range
Target Arc	0.382 Arc
Potential Interim Move	A move toward the upper Arc may occur before bearish continuation.
Current Arc Level	In Transit Between Arcs (0.236 Arc to 0.382 Arc)
Cycle Status	Mid-Cycle Migration Phase

Market outlook

The 0.236 Arc continues to act as a resistance boundary, capping upside expansion. Bullish attempts have stalled beneath the Resistance Arc, indicating that the resistance remains intact.

If the Resistance Arc holds firm, a decline toward 0.382 Arc becomes the primary scenario. Conversely, a sustained 30m close above 159.80 would invalidate the bearish scenario, opening the path toward the upper Resistance Arc.

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

GBP/USD declines to near 1.3500 as US-Iran tensions rise

The GBP/USD pair declines to near 1.3500 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East provide some support to a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar against the British Pound. All eyes will be on the US August jobs report later on Friday.

EUR/USD falls to two-week low below 1.1600 on broad USD strength

EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure after closing in negative territory on Tuesday and trades at its lowest level in two weeks below 1.1600 on Wednesday. As tensions in the Middle East escalate further, the US Dollar gathers strength on risk-aversion and hawkish Fed repricing, forcing the pair to stay on the back foot. Later in the day, private sector employment data from the US will be watched closely by market participants.

Gold recovers above $4,300; upside seems capped as Fed bets support USD

Gold recovers early lost ground to a four-week low, and trades above $4,320 heading into the European session. A modest US Dollar pullback is seen as a key factor supporting the commodity, though any meaningful upside seems elusive amid hawkish US Federal Reserve expectations. The escalating Middle East conflict lifted crude oil prices to a fresh high since July 24, stoking inflation fears and reaffirming bets for a Fed rate hike in September.

WTI advances to mid-$90.00s, fresh high since July 24 amid escalating US-Iran tensions

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – scales higher for the third straight day – also marking the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six – and climbs to a fresh high since July 24 during the Asian session on Wednesday.

ADP Employment Report is expected to show a moderate increase in private payrolls in August

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute will release its monthly report on private-sector job creation for August next Wednesday. The ADP Employment Change report is expected to show that the United States private sector added 47K new positions this month, little changed from the 44K new jobs reported in July.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.