Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen faces rejection at 0.618 Arc – Potential decline toward 195.80

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen (CHF/JPY): Arc cycle analysis

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 1h chart, CHFJPY is interacting with the 0.618 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Bullish momentum has faded near this boundary, indicating that the upper Arc continues to cap upside expansion.

Market outlook

The 0.618 Arc continues to act as a resistance boundary, capping upside expansion. Bullish attempts have stalled beneath the Resistance Arc, indicating that the resistance remains intact.

If the Resistance Arc holds firm, a decline toward 195.80 becomes the primary scenario. Conversely, a sustained 1h close above 197.00 would invalidate the bearish scenario, opening the path toward the next Resistance Arc at the 0.5 Arc level.

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

GBP/USD declines toward 1.3500 as markets turn risk-averse

GBP/USD comes under bearish pressure and declines toward 1.3500 on Tuesday. The UK ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.9% in the three months to June, against a forecast of 4.8%, while Employment Change arrived at 83K in the same period versus 147K previous. Weak UK labor data, combined with the risk-averse market atmosphere amid a re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East weigh on the pair.

EUR/USD retreats below 1.1600 on modest USD recovery

EUR/USD struggles to gain traction and trades below 1.1600 in the second half of the day on Tuesday, even after the data from the Eurozone and Germany highlighted improving economic sentiment in August. The US Dollar (USD) benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere as tensions in Middle East remain high, making it difficult for the pair to turn north.

Gold sticks to losses below $4,400 as USD recovers further from two-month low

Gold remains depressed below the $4,400 mark through the first half of the European session, snapping a two-day winning streak amid a broadly firmer US Dollar. Inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices back the case for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in 2026.

Pi Network holds steady amid app studio costs surge to push user adoption

Pi Network extends a consolidation range capped below $0.0900 holding above the $0.0839 support level. PI token remains under pressure as the Core Team pushes for real user adoption by raising costs for AI-powered app creation, effective from August 24. Leverage-linked risk exposure eases as Open Interest declines despite an increase in social interest.

Fiscal concerns and doubts on Fed independence send US yields to long-term highs

US Treasury yields keep rising across the curve this week, with the yield for the 30-year Treasury bond reaching its highest level since 2007, during the global financial crisis, at 5.33% so far on Monday. A mix of concerns about the ballooning US fiscal deficit and growing doubts about the Federal Reserve’s Independence are increasing pressure on US Government Bonds.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.