September 2026 Riksbank Minutes: All governors moved in a more hawkish direction
All governors moved in a more hawkish direction and the question has shifted from whether to when rate hikes should come. The most hawkish members (Seim and Thedéen) explicitly favour a hike in November, while the rest supported the policy path with one hike this year (note that the policy path include a high probability for a hike in November).
A common theme was demand-driven inflation. Stronger, and broader, growth, in combination with persistent energy-related supply shocks has lifted inflation risks and removed arguments for continuing with an expansionary stance. Most governors highlighted that the signals of rate hikes should be seen as a normalisation of rates.
Anna Seim was, as usual, most hawkish and hinted to an assessment that the neutral rate could be higher than 2.25% - resulting in a more expansionary stance today, while only Hjelm explicitly opposed the rate path of up to three hikes.
All in all, the minutes were well in line with expectations. We stick to our forecast of three hikes (Nov, Feb, Mar) to 2.50%.
Author
Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.
