Oil and Gold: Price review for the week ahead

This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook.

Highlights of the week: British unemployment & inflation, German & UK manufacturing PMI

Tuesday

• British unemployment at 06:00 AM GMT for August is expected to hold steady at 4.9%, while the claimants are expected to decrease to 19,400 for September compared to the previous reading of 27,800. The data might be already priced in, but any surprise in the actual numbers might create volatility across all pound-related pairs.

Wednesday

• British Inflation rate at 06:00 AM GMT, where the figure for September is expected to increase from 3.1% to 3.4%. If it's confirmed, the figure will reach the highest recorded level in 2026, and the pound might witness some short-term gains against other currencies mainly because it could influence the decision at the next meeting of the Bank of England.

Thursday

• Japanese inflation rate at 23:30 GMT. The expectations for September are that the rate could go up to 2.3% from the previous 1.9%. This might be somewhat bullish news to the market participants trading the yen.

Friday

• Flash German Manufacturing PMI for October is expected to decrease by 0.4 points, reaching 53.5. If the expectations are confirmed, it would reinforce the German manufacturing sector which would still be growing for the majority of 2026 and in extension some minor support for the Euro and some manufacturing related instruments.
• Flash British manufacturing PMI at 08:30 AM GMT. The expectations for the figure are at 51.7 compared to the previous 51.9. UK manufacturing has managed to remain above the 50-point mark since November 2025, and if the expectations are confirmed, then it might create some short-term gains for the pound.
• Flash British services PMI at 08:30 AM GMT. Market participants are expecting the publication to be at 51.8 points compared to the 52.1 points of September. The services sector in the UK has managed to remain above the 50-point mark for the majority of the last 3 years, showing resilience. This shows the health and strength of the service sector in the UK and could potentially create some support for the quid in the immediate aftermath of the release.

US Oil, daily

Oil prices retreated from their monthly highs as traders balanced escalating Middle East tensions against recovering supply flows. Attacks near Saudi Arabia’s export infrastructure and reports of tankers being hit in the Persian Gulf kept geopolitical risks elevated. However, US officials said crude flows through the Persian Gulf had recovered to around 80% of pre-war levels, although refined-product shipments remain constrained. Meanwhile, Washington is pursuing a deal to secure additional diesel supplies from Russia, while diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war remain uncertain. Persistent supply risks continue to support prices, but weaker economic conditions could limit further gains.

From a technical perspective, crude oil is showing strong bullish momentum, trading around $98 after breaking above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $95. Price is holding well above both moving averages, while the rising 50-day moving average near $91 supports the bullish structure. The next key resistance is the psychological $100 level, followed by the recent high around $101. A move back below $95 could trigger a pullback toward $91, while a deeper correction could bring the 50% Fibonacci support at $88 into focus.

Gold-Dollar, daily

Gold edged higher to around $4,170 an ounce as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns and traders reassessed the likelihood of another Fed rate hike. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 15% chance of a quarter-point increase next week, following comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that suggested rates could remain unchanged. Lower Treasury yields, a selloff in technology stocks linked to AI investment concerns, and 13 consecutive weeks of inflows into gold-backed ETFs have also supported the metal.

From a technical point of view, gold remains under short-term bearish pressure, trading around $4,170 after stabilising near the 78.6% Fibonacci support at $4,130. The price remains below both the 61.8% retracement at $4,250 and the moving averages, suggesting that the broader corrective structure is still intact. However, the recent consolidation above $4,130 indicates that selling pressure may be easing. A break above $4,250 could open the way toward $4,330, while a decisive move below $4,130 would expose the $4,000 area.