Morning briefing: EUR/USD holds above crucial support at 1.1300

The Dollar index has risen and has scope to test 101.60/80 or even 102 in the near term but thereafter it is to be seen whether the index declines back or manages to rise above 102. Similarly, Euro is holding above crucial support at 1.13 which if breaks would indicate an initial bearish breakout signal for a deeper decline in the medium to long term. USDJPY and EURJPY have fallen sharply and can test 155 and 176/175 before pausing for a rebound. EURINR is bearish below 109. USDCNY is headed towards 6.70/69 while USDINR saw selling by the RBI near 96.15 and declined to close below 96 yesterday but the decline may not sustain for long and we may expect an initial test of 95.80/60 before rebounding back to 96+ levels. Aussie can dip to 0.69 while Pound may hold above crucial support at 1.32.

The US Treasury Yields sustain higher. The bullish view is intact. They have room to rise further. The US PCE data release today will need a close watch. The German Yields have dipped. This is likely to be short-lived. They can rise back and go further higher. The outlook remains bullish. The 10Yr GoI has come down slightly. This could just be a corrective dip. Support is there to limit the downside. The 10Yr GoI has potential to go further higher.

Dow can decline towards 51500-51000 in the near term. DAX needs to hold 25350 to maintain its 25350-26000 range. Nifty can bounce towards 22800-23000 while above 22500. Nikkei remains vulnerable towards 65000-64000 below 67000. Shanghai has held 3800 support and can rise towards 3850-3900.

Crude prices are testing key support levels as steady oil flows through Hormuz ease supply concerns. Gold has bounced from $4100 and can rise towards $4300-$4400 while above support. Silver can rise towards $63-$65 while above $60. Copper remains weak towards $6.60-$6.50. Natural Gas can test $3.00, with a break below opening $2.80-$2.60.