Household consumption price levels lower in CEE

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Poland will release series of data at 9.30 AM (retail sales growth, producer prices, employment and wage growth) for May.
In Poland, industrial output growth in May was stronger than expected.
Slovenia will release wage growth in May as well (due 10.30 AM CET).

Economic developments

In 2025, price levels for household final consumption expenditure differed widely across EU countries, as well as within the region. The highest price levels for household consumption were recorded in Denmark (140% of the EU average), Ireland (136%) and Luxembourg (132%). Meanwhile, the lowest levels were observed in Bulgaria (63%), Romania (65%) and Poland (73%). Thus, two CEE countries had among the lowest price levels in the EU. Hungary and Croatia had price levels for household consumption only slightly higher than Poland’s, at 77% and 78%, respectively. Within the region, Slovenia and Czechia had the highest price levels for household consumption. These two countries are also the most developed in terms of GDP per capita. Price levels in the CEE region are generally lower than in the EU as a whole, mainly because CEE economies still have lower income levels, lower wages, different consumption structures and cheaper non-tradable services.

Market movements

CEE currencies weakened against the euro toward the end of last week due to global developments. Long-term yields declined. In Czechia, central banker Zamrazilova said that last week’s interest rate hike should not be seen as the beginning of a monetary tightening cycle. While Czech Prime Minister Babiš expressed his disagreement with the central bank’s decision, Governor Michl defended the central bank’s independence. In Romania, PM-designate Veștea submitted the government list and the 2026–2028 program to Parliament on 21 June, after the Social Democrats (PSD) unanimously decided to join the cabinet. At the moment, however, it remains unclear whether he can secure a clear majority.

Download The Full CEE Macro Daily

Author

Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

At Erste Group we greatly value transparency. Our Investor Relations team strives to provide comprehensive information with frequent updates to ensure that the details on these pages are always current.

GBP/USD trades with caution above 1.3200 amid UK political chaos

GBP/USD regains the 1.3200 level in early Europe on Monday, failing to fill up the bearish opening gap. UK PM Keir Starmer is set to announce his exit plan later today. That continues to undermine the British Pound amid renewed haven demand for the US Dollar.

EUR/USD struggles above 1.1450 amid concerns over Iran deal progress

EUR/USD stays defensive above 1.1450 in the European trading hours on Monday. Concerns about progress for the US-Iran peace deal and expectations of higher US interest rates keep the US Dollar supported against the Euro. ECB President Lagarde is set to speak later on Monday.

Gold sticks to modest gains; bulls seem hesitant amid Fed hike bets, Iran risks

Gold attracts some buyers at the start of a new week, and seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak to a more than one-week low, touched last Friday. Crude Oil prices turn lower following a modest bullish gap after mediators Qatar and Pakistan announced a formal 60-day roadmap aimed at securing a final US-Iran peace deal. This helps ease concerns around inflation and higher interest rates, offering some support to the precious metal.

Breaking: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire deal violation

Iran says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the United States (US) and Israel of violating the ceasefire. According to Iran, the decision came over the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a warning to all vessels: "Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, your security will be jeopardized."

Cardano: Whale accumulation offers limited relief

Cardano (ADA) is trading near $0.158 on Monday after a steep 14% correction in the previous week. While on-chain data from Santiment indicates that some large holders accumulated ADA during the recent sell-off, derivatives market indicators remain mixed.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.