|

GBP/USD Price outlook: British Pound/US Dollar navigating between arc levels

British Pound/US Dollar (GBP/USD): Arc cycle analysis

Chart

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 30m chart, British Pound/U.S. Dollar is trading between the 0.5 Arc and 0.382 Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price has cleared the 0.5 Arc boundary and is progressing toward the 0.382 Arc, suggesting continued movement toward the next Arc boundary.

vc

Reading

 Market Bias

Bearish

 Preferred Scenario

Potential Continuation / Cycle-to-Cycle Expansion

 Primary Target Zone

1.3527

 Scenario Invalidation

Sustained close back above 1.3560

 Current Arc Level

In Transit Between Arcs (0.5 Arc to 0.382 Arc)

 Cycle Status

Mid-Cycle Migration Phase

 Arc Integrity

Neutral

Market outlook

Price is trading between the 0.5 Arc and the 0.382 Arc, indicating that the market is progressing through the current Arc Cycle toward the next Arc boundary. If momentum continues, the preferred scenario is continued movement toward the target 1.3527 price.

Conversely, a sustained 30m close back above 1.3560 would invalidate the continuation scenario and could shift the outlook toward the Previous Arc Cycle.

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

More from Mohamad Gharib
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD eases toward 1.3500 on geopolitical tensions, hawkish Fed bets

GBP/USD trades with mild losses below 1.3550 in the European session. The US Dollar recovers some ground amid ongoing Middle East tensions and hawkish expectations around the Fed's interest rate outlook, weighing on the pair ahead of US data releases.

EUR/USD struggles near 1.1600, awaits Eurozone HICP for impetus

EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce and drifts near 1.1600 in European trading hours on Tuesday. The pair remains under pressure amid a modest US Dollar rebound. Traders now look to the preliminary reading of the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for fresh trading impetus.

Gold seems vulnerable below $4,450 amid Fed hike bets and Iran risks

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses around the $4,430 region heading into the European session, and remains well within striking distance of a one-and-a-half-week low, which was touched the previous day. US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's comments last Friday lifted market bets for an imminent interest rate hike and undermined the non-yielding yellow metal.

Ripple, Cardano, and Dogecoin show weakness – Crucial EMAs in focus

Ripple, Cardano, and Dogecoin remain weak after double-digit losses last week, testing their crucial Exponential Moving Averages for immediate support. The technical outlook warns of further weakness in the prices of XRP, ADA, and DOGE as bullish momentum eases.

Bond markets again show a long series of “highest yield since” headlines

The rise in global yields continues unabatedly. Ongoing elevated oil/energy prices, markets anticipating tighter monetary policy and higher (fiscal) risk premia all are possible explanations for this trend move. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East pushed the oil price back to the $90/b area. While the move wasn’t that big as such, it supported a higher for longer narrative.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.