EUR/USD price forecast: Euro/US Dollar faces rejection at 0.618 Arc, potential decline toward 1.1642

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD): Arc cycle analysis

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, Euro / U.S. Dollar is interacting with the 0.618 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Bullish momentum has faded near this boundary, indicating that the upper Arc continues to cap upside expansion.

Metric	Reading
Market Bias	Neutral-Bearish
Preferred Scenario	Potential Rejection / Decline Toward Next Support Arc
Primary Target Zone	1.1642
Scenario Invalidation	Sustained close above 1.1692
Current Arc Level	Resistance Arc (0.618)
Cycle Status	Testing Resistance Arc
Arc Integrity	Strong

Market outlook

The 0.618 Arc continues to act as a resistance boundary, capping upside expansion. Bullish attempts have stalled beneath the Resistance Arc, indicating that the resistance remains intact.

If the Resistance Arc holds firm, a decline toward 1.1642 price becomes the primary scenario. Conversely, a sustained 4h close above 1.1692 would invalidate the bearish scenario, opening the path toward the next Resistance Arc at the 0.786 Arc level.

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

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