EU monthly news: June 2026

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

Politics

The EU has agreed to legislation that will finalize its trade agreement with the United States. The rules are a key component of the framework trade agreement with Washington reached last summer, which is intended to prevent the imposition of higher U.S. tariffs on EU products. The Commission and the Council of the EU wanted to approve the agreement quickly, in part due to concern over possible retaliation from Washington. US President Trump recently stated that the EU must bring the agreement into force by July 4 or else it will face significantly higher tariffs. The text still needs to be voted on by Members of the European Parliament at a plenary session, which is expected to take place in mid-June in Strasbourg.

The European Commission presented the European Technological Sovereignty Package, a set of measures to strengthen Europe's capacity in semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), cloud and open source. The package includes two legislative proposals - the Chips Act 2.0 and the Cloud and AI Development Act - as well as the Open Source Strategy and a Strategic Roadmap for Digitalisation and AI in Energy. Together, these measures support Europe's ambition to become an AI continent, strengthen its digital autonomy and help build a more sustainable digital future.

The European Commission has notified airlines that they are not allowed to retroactively increase the price of tickets that have already been purchased. The Commission said that the impact of the war in the Middle East and fuel price increases are not sufficient reasons for abrogating the rights of passengers. Price changes will only be allowed for new ticket sales.

Economy

In the first quarter of 2026, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.2% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.0% in the EU in the first quarter of 2026.

In the first quarter of 2026, the EU imported €627.8 billion in goods from non-EU countries and exported €640.5 billion. Compared with the previous quarter, imports increased by 1.7% and exports decreased by 0.1%. Compared with the first quarter of 2025, both imports and exports decreased, by 3.3% and 8.8%, respectively.

The EU unemployment rate was 6.0% in April 2026, also stable compared with March 2026 and with April 2025.

The EU annual inflation was 3.2% in April 2026, up from 2.8% in March. A year earlier, the rate was 2.4%. The lowest annual rates were registered in Sweden (0.5%), Denmark (1.2%) and Czechia (2.1%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (9.5%) and Bulgaria (6.0%). Compared with March 2026, annual inflation fell in five Member States, remained stable in one and rose in twenty-one.

In March 2026, compared with February 2026, seasonally adjusted industrial production increased by 0.8% in the EU. In February 2026, industrial production grew by 0.2% in the EU.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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AUD/USD keeps range near mid-0.7100s as USD bulls await US CPI

AUD/USD steadies near mid-0.7100s in the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's sharp decline to an over one-week low. The August PPI report reaffirmed Fed rate-hike bets and boosted the US Dollar on Thursday, which weighed heavily on the pair. However, hawkish RBA expectations limited losses for the Aussie as USD bulls now await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh bets.

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00; looks to US CPI

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00 in the Asian session on Friday after hot Japanese PPI data bolster a more hawkish BoJ repricing and provide fresh impetus to the Japanese Yen. However, the downside appears capped as the US Dollar preserves overnight gains ahead of the latest US consumer inflation data.

Gold: Gains remain capped by $4,400

Gold regains composure and trades with decent gains on Friday, managing to refocus attention on the $4,440 mark per ounce troy. Therefore, the precious metal reverses Thursday’s decline as the US Dollar alternates gains with losses at the end of the week.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP extends decline as returning ETF inflows fail to lift outlook

Ripple (XRP) falls below $1.33 on Friday, marking the third consecutive day of declines. The token continues to track the broader cryptocurrency market downturn, with investors closely monitoring heightened macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

Weekly focus – The hawks set the tone

Risky assets came under pressure this week as energy prices kept creeping higher and the ECB surprised the markets with a hawkish tone. The price of Brent crude touched USD 110 per barrel on Thursday night, highest since mid-May, as news emerged that the Yemeni Houthis had reached control of key port cities and islands near the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.