Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes EUR/USD and USD/JPY outlook.
EUR/USD has some, but only limited room to fall in Q4
EUR/USD may now be priced for the ECB and Fed to do nothing, and for the US to grow much faster than the Eurozone. Strong US data isn’t having as much impact in October as it did in September, and we may be twiddling our thumbs waiting for something to change. I’m tempted to conclude that EUR/USD has some, but only limited room to fall in Q4.
USD/JPY continues to be dragged higher by yields. That suggests that if we do see a further rise in US yields, and nothing more than a shift in the BoJ’s inflation forecast at the October 31 BoJ meeting, another spike above 150 is almost inevitable. The Yen has a good chance of being one of 2024’s top-performing currencies but forecasting when USD/JPY will peak is as easy, or as difficult, as picking when US 10-year yields will peak.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds steady near 1.0800 ahead of key events
EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.0800 early Tuesday after closing in positive territory on Monday. Market participants await ZEW sentiment data from Germany and the EU, producer inflation data from the US and Fed Chairman Powell's speech.
GBP/USD trades at around 1.2550 after UK jobs data
GBP/USD struggles to build on Monday's gains and hovers around 1.2550 in the European session on Tuesday. The data from the UK showed that the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.3% in the three months to March as forecast, failing to trigger a reaction.
Gold price edges higher ahead of US PPI data, Fed’s Powell speech
The gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds despite the consolidation of the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The upside of yellow metal might be limited as traders might wait on the sidelines ahead of key US inflation data this week.
Ethereum knocking at support’s door
Crypto market capitalisation rose 0.8% over the past 24 hours to 2.2 trillion, but growth exceeded 2% for most of the period. However, it dipped at the start of active European trading, temporarily returning to levels of a day ago.
Entering a crucial run of data for financial markets
We are entering a crucial period for financial markets and forecasters as Americans' near-term inflation expectations rise again. Upcoming reports on the CPI and PPI for April, along with new data on retail sales and industrial production, will provide valuable insights.