WTI Price Forecast: Advances above mid-$98.00s as bullish setup backs additional gains
- WTI regains positive traction following good two-way price swings over the past two days.
- Persistent geopolitical uncertainties act as a tailwind for the commodity and favor bulls.
- The constructive technical setup also backs the case for additional gains towards $100.00.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts fresh buyers on Thursday, climbing to the $98.70 zone during the Asian session. The commodity remains within striking distance of its highest level since September 15, touched earlier this week, amid
Concerns about a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel worries over potential energy supply disruptions and turn out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the black liquid. In the latest developments, two expatriates were killed and two others injured in a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field in the Eastern Province.
Meanwhile, The New York Times reported that the US and Israel have drawn up plans for a short but intense military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections. Separately, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasised the country's readiness to defend itself, while stating that Tehran is ready to give diplomacy with the US another chance.
From a technical perspective, crude oil prices hold well above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Adding to this, Tuesday's bounce from a resistance breakpoint, now turned support near the $95.00 mark, suggests that the short-term uptrend remains intact despite the recent volatility led by mixed signals over US-Iran peace talks.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 keeps a neutral-to-positive tone, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in negative territory, hinting that upside momentum is moderate rather than impulsive. Nevertheless, the broader constructive setup suggests that any corrective slide could find support at $95.00.
The structural floor is located at the 100-period SMA, around $92.76, where buyers would be expected to reassert control on a deeper pullback within the prevailing bullish context. That said, a break below this pivotal support would weaken the bullish structure, whereas holding above it keeps the path open for another attempt toward the recent psychological $100 region and beyond.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
