USD/JPY Price Forecast: Wavering around 158.00 with 200-day SMA holding bulls
- The US Dollar edges up above 158.00 but remains range-bound, capped below 158.50.
- Soft Japanese Household Spending data has offset the impact of BoJ Sato’s hawkish comments.
- The technical picture shows the USD/JPY pair stalled after September’s recovery.
The US Dollar (USD) ticks up against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday but remains trapped in a tight range, with downside attempts contained above the 157.50 area and the 200-day SMA at 158.54, which holds bulls for now. Soft Japanese household spending data has failed to support the Yen, but the US Dollar is showing some weakness against most of its peers as US Treasury yields pulled back from multi-decade highs.
Data from the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry revealed that Household Spending dropped 3.1% year-over-year in August. The decline is softer than the 3.6% expected by the market, but it marks the eighth consecutive contraction, which confirms that the country's domestic demand keeps weakening.
The Yen, however, received some support from comments by Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) new committee member, Ayano Sato, supporting gradual monetary tightening earlier this week. Sato is one of the two members who voted against September’s rate hike, and these comments clear the way for a steeper tightening cycle by the Japanese Central bank.
Technical Analysis: Looking for direction following September’s recovery
USD/JPY trades at 158.22, holding just under the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.54, which keeps the near‑term tone capped despite the broader uptrend structure. Momentum in the daily chart is mildly constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around mid‑50s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still positive. The US Dollar, however, seems to need an additional impulse to break the range.
Immediate resistance is defined first by the mentioned 200-day SMA at 158.54, followed by the late-September highs around 159.00 and the September 2 high at 160.39. On the downside, initial support appears at the weekly channel's bottom, around 157.50, ahead of the late-September lows, near 156.40, and the September 17 low, at 155.34.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.08% | 0.21% | -0.05% | -0.38% | -0.24% | -0.18% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | 0.06% | 0.34% | 0.07% | -0.23% | -0.08% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.08% | -0.06% | 0.29% | 0.04% | -0.28% | -0.12% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.21% | -0.34% | -0.29% | -0.25% | -0.58% | -0.44% | -0.36% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.07% | -0.04% | 0.25% | -0.36% | -0.20% | -0.11% | |
| AUD | 0.38% | 0.23% | 0.28% | 0.58% | 0.36% | 0.15% | 0.25% | |
| NZD | 0.24% | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.44% | 0.20% | -0.15% | 0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.36% | 0.11% | -0.25% | -0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
