USD/JPY holds onto light gain as Hormuz closure fuels safe-haven demand

The reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the US triggers a global risk-off shock.
Rising Oil prices amid US-Iran escalation support the USD.
JPY strength may be capped as energy import risks weigh on the Yen.

Agustin Wazne FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair is trading with a neutral tone near 159.70 on Tuesday, up 0.27%, as markets react to a dramatic escalation in geopolitical tensions following headlines that the United States (US) has moved to effectively shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

On the one hand, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is capping upside in the US Dollar (USD) amid traditional safe-haven inflows as investors seek protection amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

On the other hand, Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy leaves it particularly exposed to a sustained spike in Oil prices.

Meanwhile, the USD is drawing strong support from multiple channels. Higher Oil prices are reinforcing expectations that inflation could remain sticky, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts. At the same time, US Treasury yields and stocks are holding firm.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the four-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.74, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 159.09 and 159.26, respectively. The cluster of nearby horizontal levels at 159.73 and 159.57 underpins the pair, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing 62 leans to the bullish side without yet signaling overbought conditions.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the immediate pivot zone near 159.73, followed by 159.57 and 159.51, where recent buying interest has emerged, with the 100-period and 20-period SMAs reinforcing the broader floor. On the topside, the first hurdle is the recent horizontal resistance at 159.86, and a clear break above this barrier would open the way for a continuation of the uptrend in the near term.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Agustin Wazne

FXStreet

Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.

AUD/USD sits near monthly top, above 0.7000 as renewed USD buying caps gains

AUD/USD holds a positive bias for the fourth straight day, trading above 0.7000 in the Asian session on Wednesday and near the monthly high set the previous day after RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's hawkish remarks. Meanwhile, the US Dollar attracts some buyers as energy-driven inflation fears keep bets for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 firmly on the table. Moreover, geopolitical uncertainty is acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck and caps gains for the Aussie.

USD/JPY eyes 158.50 amid modest USD strength; remains confined in a familiar range

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined within a multi-week range as the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike keep Japanese Yen bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations, bolstered by inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, underpin the US Dollar. However, looming intervention fears could limit JPY losses and cap the currency pair.

Gold struggles near weekly low, just above $4,100 amid USD uptick

Gold remains depressed for the fourth straight day, flirting with the weekly low during Wednesday’s Asian session, with bears awaiting a sustained break below $4,100 before placing fresh bets. Energy-driven inflation fears keep Fed hike bets firmly on the table, reviving US Dollar demand and undermining the non-yielding bullion. However, an unconfirmed report of US-Iran diplomacy could cap the safe-haven buck, which could offer some support to the precious metal.

Ethereum bounces off $2,400 for a sixth day despite ETF outflows

Ethereum (ETH) bounced again near the $2,400 level on Tuesday, the sixth straight day, as its on-chain cost basis and key moving averages have stood as key support levels. The sub-$2,400 level has proven to be a strong support for the top altcoin over the past week amid macro pressures. Buyers have repeatedly stepped in to defend prices whenever it falls below the level.

SpaceX's earnings don't matter. What they unlock does

The Elon Musk-founded SpaceX reports third-quarter results after Tuesday's session. The figure that decides the next month for the stock isn't in them. On Thursday, the second full trading day after the release, up to 1.3 billion shares held by employees and early investors become eligible for sale.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.