USD/CHF holds gains near 0.7850 ahead of Fed interest rate decision

USD/CHF appreciates as the US Dollar steadies on market caution ahead of the Fed decision.
Traders await Powell’s guidance on how rising oil prices may shape the Fed’s policy outlook.
The Swiss National Bank is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0% on Thursday.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

USD/CHF gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 0.7850 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) remains steady on market caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. If the Fed opts to hold rates steady, it would mark the second consecutive pause, reflecting a cautious stance amid increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Traders await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks to gain impetus regarding how the recent surge in oil prices may influence the central bank’s policy outlook. Energy prices may further appreciate on following recent US military strikes on Iranian coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz, citing threats from anti-ship missiles to global shipping, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, the BBC reported that Israel claimed responsibility for strikes that killed senior Iranian officials, including Ali Larijani and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani.

However, the USD/CHF came under pressure as the Swiss Franc (CHF) gained on safe-haven demand amid persistent geopolitical risks. However, CHF’s upside may be limited after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) signaled a stronger willingness to intervene in FX markets, citing concerns that continued currency strength could trigger deflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, surging energy prices linked to the Iran conflict pose risks to the global economy by fueling inflation and increasing the likelihood of higher interest rates. The Swiss National Bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0% on Thursday.

Swiss Franc FAQs

What key factors drive the Swiss Franc?

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency?

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc?

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc?

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc?

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

AUD/USD stays defensive below 0.7150 after Chinese data

AUD/USD remains on the back foot below 0.7150 in the Asian session on Tuesday, close to an over three-week low touched the previous day. US bond yields hold near multi-year highs ahead of the FOMC meeting and oil-driven inflation risks, supporting the US Dollar and weighing on the currency pair. Mixed Chinese activity data for August also fail to inspire the Aussie.

USD/JPY extends gains toward 155.00 amid USD resurgence

USD/JPY keeps pushing higher toward 155.00 early Tuesday, looking for more upside, as traders await the FOMC and BoJ meetings this week. Meanwhile, Fed rate-hike bets and oil-driven inflation risks keep US bond yields near multi-year highs, supporting the US Dollar and the pair. That said, a more hawkish repricing of the BoJ normalization path might continue to underpin the Japanese Yen and could limit USD/JPY's upside. .

$4,275: Gold skating on thin ice as eyes remain on Mideast conflict, Fed

Gold is briefly regaining $4,300 early Tuesday, looking to build on a tepid recovery from six-week troughs near $4,250. Traders are monitoring the widening conflict in the Middle East ahead of the two-day US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting later in the day.

WTI rises above $98.50 amid Middle East supply fears

West Texas Intermediate oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $98.60 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Crude oil prices appreciate as traders continue to navigate heightened uncertainty over global supply.

Hard assets are entering their next explosive phase – Are you positioned?

It’s official: Commodities and Hard Assets have become the best-performing asset class of 2026. In a year defined by persistent inflation, geopolitical conflict, rising sovereign debt and intensifying supply disruption, capital is rotating aggressively into the one area governments cannot print and central banks cannot manufacture: scarce physical assets.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.