USD/CAD Price Analysis: Recovery faces resistance at 1.3200, as the downtrend remains intact

Despite a recovery of 0.78% from its year-to-date (YTD) low of 1.3092, the USD/CAD remains below the intermediate resistance level of 1.3243.
USD/CAD's first resistance would emerge at the 50-day EMA at 1.3293, on its way toward 1.3400.
The pair key support levels lie at 1.3146, and YTD low at 1.3092.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

USD/CAD recovers some ground during the North American session, up 0.20% but is struggling to break above solid resistance levels, impeding the pair from conquering the 1.3200 figure. The USD/CAD is trading at 1.3192 after hitting a daily low of 1.3146.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The USD/CAD daily chart portrays the pair as downward biased. However, since reaching a new year-to-date (YTD) low of 1.3092 on July 14, it enjoyed a recovery of 0.78%. Yet, it remains below the July 18 swing high of 1.3243, which is seen as an intermediate resistance level that, once broken, could pave the way for further upside.

If the above scenario plays out, the first resistance would be the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3293 before breaking 1.3300 on its way to the confluence of the 200 and 100-day EMAs at 1.3362/1.3366. Upside risks lie at 1.3400.

Nevertheless, the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD is downwards, cushioned on the upside by the 20-day EMA at 1.3214. That said, the USD/CAD first support would be the weekly low of 1.3146, followed by the July 20 swing low of 1.3119. A breach of the latter will expose the YTD low of 1.3092.

USD/CAD Price Action – Daily chart

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price	1.3193
Today Daily Change	0.0025
Today Daily Change %	0.19
Today daily open	1.3168

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.3223
Daily SMA50	1.3327
Daily SMA100	1.3447
Daily SMA200	1.3474

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.3229
Previous Daily Low	1.315
Previous Weekly High	1.3244
Previous Weekly Low	1.312
Previous Monthly High	1.3585
Previous Monthly Low	1.3117
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.318
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.3199
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.3136
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.3104
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.3057
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.3214
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.3261
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.3293

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

GBP/USD surges to multi-day peaks past 1.3250

GBP/USD leaves behind Friday’s small pullback and advances past 1.3250 level, or five-day highs, on Monday. Cable’s upside follows extra losses in the Greenback, while traders continue to assess the geopolitical front and upcoming key events.

EUR/USD picks up extra pace north of 1.1400

EUR/USD extends its recovery past 1.1400 the figure as the NA session draws to a close on Monday. Indeed, the pair advances for the third straight day amid the persistent offered bias in the US Dollar. Meanwhile, market participants keep gearing up for the ECB Forum in Sintra and the release of critical US labour market data.

Gold bears flirt with $4,000 as Iran tensions and Fed hike bets support USD

Gold remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Tuesday, with bears awaiting a sustained break below $4,000 before positioning for deeper losses. Renewed US-Iran hostilities over the weekend cast doubts over the sustainability of the peace deal. This, along with elevated expectations for Fed rate hikes, offers some support to the US Dollar and keeps the bullion within striking distance of the YTD low, touched last week.

Bitcoin stalls at $60K as buyer conviction fades, Strategy authorizes BTC sales

Bitcoin is trading around the $60,000 level on Monday after a sharp decline last week. With the top crypto struggling to recover, analysts suggest the market remains firmly in defensive territory as investors await stronger signs of demand.

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.