Taiwan Dollar: Consolidation range with upside risks against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Charlie Lay highlight that Taiwan’s booming AI-driven exports and strong external surplus create a fundamentally supportive backdrop for the Taiwan Dollar (TWD). Despite robust Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and export growth, the Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBC) is expected to keep rates at 2%, intervening to smooth TWD appreciation. They expect USD/TWD to trade within a defined consolidation range near term.

Taiwan Dollar supported by AI boom

"The latest data point to further upside risk to already exceptionally strong GDP growth. Q2 GDP expanded 12.9% yoy, and the government recently raised its 2026 growth forecast sharply to 11.05%, reflecting booming AI-related exports and investment."

"For monetary policy, the Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBC) is still expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 2% at the next meeting on 17 September. Despite the stellar growth backdrop, inflation pressures remain relatively contained at around 2.1% this year."

"CBC confirmed that it intervened to smooth volatile capital flows in July. Year-to-date, TWD is broadly flat vs USD. Near term, we expect USD/TWD to consolidate in a 31.50-32.00 range, with risks tilted modestly to the downside if broad USD weakness persists."

"For USD/TWD, the macro backdrop remains fundamentally supportive of TWD, given exceptionally strong exports, a large external surplus and the absence of any near-term case for CBC easing. However, the CBC is likely to remain sensitive to the pace of TWD appreciation and continue smoothing excessive currency moves, limiting the scope for a rapid appreciation despite the exceptionally strong export backdrop."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)