Soft US ECI data could fuel disinflation narrative and soften the Dollar – ING

Today's highlight will be the US Employment Cost Index data. A soft number could hit the Dollar, economists at ING report.

DXY could head back to Thursday's low near 100.50

A soft ECI number can wipe out the final 8 bps that is priced for the US tightening cycle this year and will probably knock the Dollar 0.5-1.0% lower. This would be a good story for risk assets, where both the Fed and seemingly the ECB would be closer to ending tightening cycles. 

If we are right with our call on the ECI, DXY could head back to Thursday's low near 100.50.