Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD holds around $66.00 buoyed by US Dollar weakness
- XAG/USD treads water, just above $66.00, halfway through the monthly range
- The precious metal is drawing support for a soft US Dollar, with all eyes on the US CPI release due later this week.
- HSBC experts say that weaker US data, inflation concerns, policy credibility and political risks are all weighing on the USD.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading flat at the $66.00 area on Tuesday, holding minor gains on the weekly chart after bouncing from the mid-range of the $64.00s last week. The precious metal is drawing some support from a soft US Dollar, as US markets return from a long weekend, with traders awaiting Friday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release to assess the outcome of next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
Analysts at HSBC observe that a combination of “weaker US data, persistent inflation concerns, policy credibility questions, and political risks all weigh on the Dollar, fueling the debasement conversation.” However, they note that Fed Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks marked an important turning point, as his speech “helped ease one key part of that story by restoring confidence in the Fed’s commitment to fight inflation.”
This has “helped reduce the risk that weak policy credibility would become a lasting drag on the Dollar and denting the debasement narrative, at least for now,” say the HSBC experts. Even so, the bank cautions about "broader structural concerns, especially around US fiscal sustainability, which could still return and weigh on the Dollar yet again.”
Technical Analysis: Looking for direction halfway through the mintly range
XAG/USD trades at $66.02 halfway through the monthly range, roughly between $63.00 and $71.00, just below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average, at the $73.00 area. Momentum indicators in the daily chart are neutral, with the Relative Strength Index (14) around 52 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slipping modestly below zero, all in all reflecting a lack of clear bias.
Initial resistance is seen at the August 25 and 27 lows around $67.40, ahead of the June 12 and August 28 highs, between $71.12 and $71.56, and the mentioned 200-day SMA at $72.95.
On the downside, Friday's low, near $64.75, might hold bears ahead of a key support level in the $63.00 area. A break of that level would confirm a bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern, increasing pressure towards the August 6 low at $60.87.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
