Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD shows resilience below $77.00; 100-SMA on H4 holds the key
- Silver struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick to the $79.00 neighborhood.
- The broader technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for further losses.
- A convincing break below the channel support is needed to reaffirm the negative outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to the $79.00 neighborhood and drops to a fresh daily low in the last hour. The white metal, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's recovery from a one-and-a-half-week low, though it shows some resilience below the $77.00 mark.
From a technical perspective, the previous day's break below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart favors the XAG/USD bears within an otherwise broader upward parallel channel. The channel bottom near $74.60 acts as the main structural floor, while the SMA overhead, at $78.02, now caps rebounds.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 39, and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is remaining in negative territory. Both suggest weak buying interest and downside-leaning momentum within the range, though a break below the channel support is needed to reaffirm the negative outlook.
The rising channel support is pegged around $74.60, where a clear violation would weaken the broader bullish structure and expose a deeper corrective phase. On the topside, a sustained break above the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart would open the way for additional gains toward the channel resistance near $90.44.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
