Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $66.00 amid Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish tone
- Silver falls following hawkish Jackson Hole remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaling potential further rate hikes.
- CME FedWatch tool suggests that markets are pricing in a 57.5% chance of a 25-bps Fed rate hike next month.
- Silver struggles as oil prices rise after Iran launched a coordinated missile strike across multiple locations.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $66.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. The non-yielding Silver declined following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh. Warsh said on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium that policymakers will "have work to do" if they were not confident cost-of-living pressures were easing for Americans. “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” said Warsh. “Otherwise, we have work to do,” he added.
Moreover, the Fed's next interest rate decision will be made on September 15-16. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in nearly a 57.5% odds of at least 25 basis points (bps) next month, up from 35% before Fed Chair Warsh’s speech.
Silver also remained pressured by higher oil prices after Iran launched a coordinated barrage of ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles across multiple locations, including Tehran, Lorestan, Karaj, Khorramabad, and Shiraz. The strikes, targeting positions toward the Strait of Hormuz, came in direct response to a vow by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to avenge a Sunday United States (US) strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island.
The preceding US strike marked the first direct attack on Iranian military positions in over a month, explicitly targeting rocket sites prepared to lay mines in the strategic waterway. While American forces reported closely monitoring the Strait to ensure the uninterrupted flow of global trade, Washington's broader strategy had recently favored economic sanctions over direct military actions to compel Tehran back to the negotiating table.
However, TD Securities cited that the backdrop for precious metals has improved as investors reassessd the policy stance of the Fed and the outlook for the Dollar. Strategists note that, "beyond the Fed's willingness to look past an energy-driven inflation shock, the re-ignition of the dollar debasement theme has also fueled renewed macro discretionary appetite in precious metals," helping to draw fresh interest into the complex.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
