Silver has rebounded to $63, but inflationary risks hold buyers back

Silver (XAG/USD) stabilizes around $63.45 on Wednesday, up 0.16% on the day at the time of writing. The white metal is attempting to regain its footing after hitting an intraday low of $62.19, initially extending the pullback that followed Tuesday’s rejection from the $66.50 area.

Silver remains under pressure in a cautious market environment as investors monitor the deteriorating situation in the Middle East. The Memorandum of Understanding between the United States (US) and Iran expired on Monday, while US President Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday that no talks with Tehran are currently taking place.

Disruptions to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are also keeping tensions elevated in the energy market, reinforcing concerns about the conflict's inflationary consequences. This prospect could complicate the task of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and limit its room to tighten monetary policy.

Investors now await the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) July meeting, due on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, for fresh clues about the path of US interest rates.

Since that meeting, weaker-than-expected labor market and inflation data have reduced expectations of a September rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now price in only a 32% chance of an increase at the next meeting. This shift helps limit pressure on precious metals, which tend to benefit from expectations of less restrictive monetary policy.

At the same time, inflation risks stemming from the energy shock continue to support the possibility of further monetary tightening over the longer term. US Treasury yields therefore remain elevated despite a modest decline on Wednesday, limiting the appeal of non-yielding Silver.

The release of the Fed Minutes could therefore provide the next catalyst for Silver as markets assess the balance between softer US economic data, inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict and the future path of interest rates.

XAG/USD technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $63.46, retaining a capped near-term tone as it holds beneath the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $64.74 and the 200-period SMA at $64.65. The proximity of the immediate horizontal barrier at $63.50 reinforces overhead supply just above spot, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.51 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting that recovery attempts could remain limited for now.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at $63.50, ahead of the 200-hour SMA at $64.65 and the 100-hour SMA at $64.74, with a stronger hurdle emerging at the prior horizontal cap near $66.80. On the downside, first support appears at $62.60, with a deeper cushion seen at $61.00, where buyers would be expected to show more interest if the current pullback extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)